Record temperatures in seas and over land in recent months are not a surprise; they are part of a global pattern of warming caused by decades of rising carbon emissions. The record daily highs on three days of last week – and the margin of increase – is an entirely different matter. These were unanticipated and shocking in their concentration within such a short period. It was the hottest seven days on Earth since instrumental records began in the 1850s. The last time it was so warm was in the Eemian interglacial period, some 120,000 years ago. Just like petrol on a bonfire; the accelerant in this case is human-induced greenhouse gases.
The records were indicated in preliminary data from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration compiled by the University of Maine’s Climate Reanalyzer. There is every indication the figures will be ratified. The global average was 17.18 degrees celsius on Monday, rising to 17.23 degrees by Thursday. Friday’s global temperature was 1.68 degrees above the 1850-1900 baseline, crushing the Paris accord limit of 1.5 degrees. Breaking 1.5 degrees on a day is not the same as breaking it for a year, and not the same as the long-term average being above 1.5 degrees – the critical Paris Agreement target to ensure climate disruption does not become an awful lot worse very soon. That must remain the focus as there are effective interventions that will force the dial down.
Recent temperatures are being driven by a combination of climate change, an unusually wavy band of strong winds, known as the jet stream, high over the North Atlantic, and the natural phenomenon of El Niño warming the Pacific. It means searing heat waves with temperatures reaching 46 degrees in parts of North America and sea temperatures up to 5 degrees warmer than normal in Irish waters. Warmer than usual winter temperatures in Antarctica, which have driven record low levels of sea ice this year, will also have pushed global average temperatures higher than normal. This adds up to the type of extreme heat event that may become the norm, if emissions are not forced down.
The unprecedented global heating already causing havoc in vulnerable countries should shake governments out of their business-as-usual mindsets. Their shortsightedness is confirmed by the finding that fossil fuel consumption subsidies from governments rose to a record level in 2022 – more than $1 trillion – amid the global energy crisis. Meanwhile too many countries are persisting with oil extraction.
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The single most effective way to respond to this crisis is to tackle the root cause by phasing out fossil fuels, while delivering a just transition to renewable energy for all. We can still act to slow the increase in temperatures, but time to do so is starting to run out.