Tony Blair has taken a huge gamble in calling a referendum on the new EU constitution, but he can still win the day, writes Adrian Langan
The upcoming referendum in the UK on the European constitution has generated two main reactions here. The first, among pro-Europeans, is uncertainty as to why on earth Blair has done it, and a sense of despair at the chance of success. The second, among opponents of the EU, is glee at the pleasant vista of a likely defeat for the constitution occurring in our closest neighbour.
Despite this, the referendum can still be won. Early opinion polls outlining a huge lead for the No side and the overwhelming extent of opposition in UK print media should not make Mr Blair retreat to the bunker just yet.
To win, the Yes side will need to meet the challenge full on and turn the referendum on the constitution into what it really is: a referendum on UK membership of the EU.
If all 24 other member-states ratify the constitution (not a foregone conclusion, especially since the French will now also hold a referendum) it will put extraordinary political pressure on the British.
There is a very strong possibility that one outcome of this scenario would be the withdrawal of the UK from the EU into the European Economic Area; or possibly the creation of a new EU of 24, which would ratify the constitution, leaving the UK in the shadow "old EU", effectively causing British membership to wither on the vine.
The problem for Blair and Labour is that this is quite a complicated argument, which will be contested strongly by the Tories, among others.
In this context, the UK Independence Party, currently seen as a big problem for the pro-European cause, may end up as the best thing that could happen to the Yes camp. In effect, their extremism about leaving the EU could well be the key to convince moderates in British society (pro-Europe but unsure about the constitution) about the potential fall-out from a rejection and of the need to come out and vote for it.
The proliferation of UK mass media opposed to the EU has produced two outcomes in the UK. First, a deeply ingrained latent hostility to the EU among a wide section of the population; and, second, the masking of the reality that British society is littered with extremely powerful and significant pro-Europe voices. This unnaturally muted minority, spread across all sectors of British society, will have to be mobilised strongly if a victory in the referendum is to be pulled off.
A considerable amount of this support is located within the business community - and it will be their voices (and of course, their resources) that will be needed to turn public opinion around. This mobilisation has to happen within the next year, and has to develop in a way that precludes it from being identified solely as a puppet of No 10, an image that has dogged pro-EU bodies in the UK for some time.
The standing of Mr Blair in the public mind at the moment compounds this problem. The credibility of the prime minister when saying that this constitution does not threaten any fundamental interests of the UK is damaged by his previous assertion that Iraq's alleged weapons on mass destruction posed an immediate threat.
This will be a referendum where Gordon Brown, as yet much less diminished than Mr Blair after Iraq, will need to step up to the plate. His dilemma will be, however, that in playing the vital front role needed to win the referendum, his reward will include the survival of the man whom he wants to succeed as prime minister.
Despite this, Brown will campaign strongly. Becoming prime minister in the wake of Britain's rejection of the constitution would be a similar predicament to that which prompted Franco to resist the proposed German bombing of Madrid - he did not want to become "master of a ruined city".
The extent and scale of the media opposition in the UK to the EU is quite incredible. Coverage in such papers as the Daily Telegraph, the Sun, and the Express, and the openly anti-European xenophobia of the Daily Mail can literally amaze the reasonably well-informed reader of British newspapers.
The extent of the problem this creates for the Yes side cannot be underestimated. The editors and owners of these papers have decided they want to either get the UK out of the EU or keep the EU weak by defeating the constitution (so that it won't trouble their interests), and they have therefore either directly interfered in editorial decisions or allowed editors to have free rein openly and actively to lie about the EU in their papers.
Many times in Ireland things are written by journalists about the EU that are inaccurate or simply wrong - but it is done for the most part because of a faulty understanding or misinterpretation. Not so in the UK. Lies are consciously written and published in both tabloid and broadsheet papers with no concern for the facts, let alone balance. The treatment of the EU in the UK media is the equivalent of the longest assassination attempt in history.
This is what makes the need for mobilisation of the Yes side in the UK so urgent - along with the need to persuade the business community to financially support the case. Another vital factor is that the Yes camp is going to have to step away from print media to make its case directly to the British people and use other communication methods - huge volumes of advertising and direct mail techniques, as well as a heavy on-the-ground campaigning presence.
Mobilisation of resources, organisations, and people is the key, and it had better start soon if the Yes side is to have a chance.
Adrian Langan is executive director of Bill O'Herlihy Communications, and a former director of the Irish Alliance for Europe