The Labour Court recommendation in the teachers' dispute represents a devastating critique of the ASTI. The court employs honeyed words and nuanced phrases, but the message is clear. It is telling the ASTI to take a running jump.
Stripped to its essentials, the eight-page recommendation asks the ASTI one pertinent question; why is the benchmarking pay review body process good enough for over 30,000 teachers in the INTO and the TUI and not good enough for the ASTI?
The court rebukes the ASTI for failing to present a coherent case against benchmarking. It says that the ASTI's objections are no longer credible. And it refuses to accept the ASTI argument that its case is somehow "unique".
A bruising recommendation, from a hugely respected body such as the Labour Court, should be very bad news for the ASTI. It is only the latest in a series of setbacks for a union whose case has already been rejected by the Public Service Arbitration Board.
The ASTI has other problems. It has failed to win the support of the other teacher unions. It has been riven by bitter internal disputes. And its campaign has failed to muster public support.
But something extraordinary has happened since the Labour Court issued its findings. Far from bringing the ASTI to its senses, the court's recommendation has given a new lease of life to the union's pay battle.
Why has this happened? Essentially, because most teachers believed the court was ready to deliver a sizeable bag of money. When it failed to provide what the ASTI president, Don McCluskey, calls "even one chink of light" to the union, all hell broke loose.
Within minutes of the recommendation being issued on Friday night, ASTI hardliners dismissed its carefully crafted arguments about benchmarking. The court was offering nothing upfront, and that was all that mattered.
When the standing committee met on Friday night and the executive met on Saturday, the moderates within the union - who oppose any plan to disrupt the exams - were on the run. In the words of one hardliner: "These people had asked us to put our trust in the Labour Court and what did we get? Another kick in the teeth."
The truth is that unreal expectations built up in the ASTI about what the Labour Court could deliver. The mandate given to the court said that it should consider the ASTI's 30 per cent claim in the context of overall pay policy.
Since the PPF is at the core of public pay policy, was it ever likely that the court would reward the ASTI for deserting it? Was it ever likely that the court would sound the death knell for the PPF by giving the ASTI a hefty increase outside the terms of the agreement?
On Saturday ASTI executive members were not interested in the finer points of public pay policy. They rejected the court's proposals by 151 votes to 10. The Governnment had hoped a tight vote on the package would open the way for a ballot of the ASTI's 17,000 members. But the scale of Saturday's opposition to the package means this is no longer necessary.
The spotlight has now moved on to the Government. For the first time in the teachers' dispute, there is the sense that it is the Government and not the ASTI which is under pressure.
With the clock ticking towards the June exams, anxious students and parents are wondering: will the Department of Education be able to run the exams? Who will supervise them? Most critically, who will correct them if thousands of ASTI members are unavailable?
The Government moved yesterday to reassure parents and students: the Leaving and Junior Cert exams would proceed "with or without the ASTI".
To its credit, the Department appears to have a detailed contingency plan in place. Arrangements have been made for exams without the ASTI. Supervisors for the summer exams will be recruited and given intensive training. Those employed to correct the exams will receive detailed training. And the students can always check their own papers once the results are issued.
Despite this, there is the sense that everyone is crossing their fingers and hoping for the best. The disclosure yesterday that oral and practical exams due to begin in a fortnight have been rescheduled does not inspire total confidence. The results of the Junior Cert exam may also have to be delayed by several weeks.
Despite these practical problems, the Government is digging in. It has been buoyed by the public support for its stance. The most recent Irish Times poll showed a clear majority opposed to the ASTI pay claim.
In the coming weeks the Government will again be highlighting the bitter divisions within the union, its failure to win support from the other teaching unions and the implications for the economy of a breakdown in the PPF.
But it will not be all plain sailing. The Buckley report, which gave such generous increases to TDs and civil servants, has undermined its case. And the public mood can change. It may become impatient with the Government's tough line if the exams are seriously disrupted.
The ASTI has problems of its own. Its members stand to lose another six days' pay between now and Easter. And possibly more after that. They will lose the opportunity to receive about £2,000 extra for supervising and correcting the exams.
With the other teaching unions happy to pursue even larger pay claims in a less confrontational manner, they may also come under pressure from public opinion. The public may also be slow to forgive the ASTI for launching strike action at a time where there is great sense of national solidarity over the foot-and-mouth crisis.
But the bottom line this morning is that the teachers' dispute is now moving into its most critical phase. Over 120,000 students and their parents had better brace themselves. It is going to be a bumpy ride.
seanflynn@irish-times.ie