EU leaders may agree to extension but Corbyn may not be happy

EU leaders are expected, at a minimum, to accede to British prime minister Theresa May's latest request for a negotiating extension on the Brexit process to June 30th. The request was made in a letter this morning to European Council President Donald Tusk as talks continued in Westminster between her government and the opposition Labour Party on a compromise deal.

May’s letter, however, appears to pre-empt and block one element of what is understood to be in Labour demands for a confirmatory referendum on any joint deal. That would not be possible before June 30th and that time limit would seem to make agreement with Labour more difficult.

At the EU mini-summit on Wednesday evening leaders are also expected to discuss to the possibility of a longer indeterminate “flextension” to allow the UK to continue its membership and then leave when a deal is agreed. The idea, being suggested by sources close to Mr Tusk, would be an offer time-limited by as much as a year.

Among member states there is no clear consensus yet about the advisability of granting any long extension with some fearing that a loosening of deadlines will simply allow MPs to put off confronting hard choices. Options may become clearer when EU ambassadors to the 27 remaining states meet today to prepare the summit discussion. May sets out the clear parameters for any discussions with the opposition in a framework already pointed to by EU negotiators.

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"I am clear that all of these discussions need to be based on acceptance of the withdrawal agreement without reopening it, as the United Kingdom agreed with the European Council at our last meeting, and should focus on the framework for the future relationship between the United Kingdom and the European Union, " she wrote.

Keen to demonstrate that the British government is adopting a new approach — also required by EU leaders — she emphasises that “if a consensus is going to be found, compromise will be needed on all sides, in the national interest. If the talks do not lead to a single unified approach soon, the Government would instead look to establish a consensus on a small number of clear options on the future relationship that could be put to the House in a series of votes to determine which course to pursue.”

“These steps demonstrate the government’s determination to bring this process to a resolution quickly,” she wrote. But even an agreement now will require time to enact legislation and so the government is seeking this extension.

Acknowledging that the June 30th date brings them past the European elections Mrs May accepts the legal obligation on the UK to contest these if the extension is granted. It will make preparations for the contexts. But should agreement on a deal be reached before the May 23rd polling, allowing the UK to leave the EU, the UK would then cancel the polling.

"The government will want to agree a timetable for ratification that allows the United Kingdom to withdraw from the European Union before 23 May 2019 and therefore cancel the European Parliament elections, but will continue to make responsible preparations to hold the elections should this not prove possible," she said.

The requirement to hold elections should the UK remain a member and hostility from her backbenchers may make the British reluctant to accept a longer extension.