SRI LANKA: The escalation in violence between Tamil Tigers and government forces suggests a return to civil war may be imminent, writes Rahul Bedi in Sampur
Sri Lanka's undeclared civil war has intensified over the past month, which has been the bloodiest since the 2002 truce between Tamil Tiger rebels and the government, triggering fears of a return to hostilities.
The warring parties have been engaged in tit-for-tat bombings and attacks on one another since early last month, which have claimed more than 100 lives.
But both sides claim they want peace and a return to stalled negotiations to resolve almost 25 years of war that has been waged by Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) for an independent homeland in the north and east of the island, and which has claimed more than 65,000 lives.
The Tamils, who constitute about 12 per cent of Sri Lanka's population of 19 million, claim relentless discrimination at the hands of the majority Sinhalese community.
There are few positive signs on the ground to indicate that peace is imminent, even though the government has halted air strikes on Tamil Tiger-controlled regions in northeastern Sri Lanka which followed a suspected suicide attack on army headquarters last week.
The government has also been pressing peace broker Norway and aid donors to help bring the Tigers to the table, the government's top official handling the peace bid said.
"We are optimistic. I am an optimist," chief negotiator Palitha Kohona said earlier this week. "We are awaiting responses to the proposals we have made."
But Helen Olafsdottir, spokeswoman for the Nordic-staffed truce monitoring mission, said trouble was escalating. "Both sides seem to be breaching the ceasefire agreement and the breaches seem to be becoming more serious. But most people who suffer are civilians," she said in the capital Colombo.
Meanwhile, dazed survivors of the military bombings in Sampur in northeast Sri Lanka last week wandered listlessly around in makeshift refugee camps, insecure and uncertain about their future.
In debilitating heat, the 15,000-odd refugees, mostly women and children from the targeted coastal fishing village about 300km (186 miles) north of Colombo, lay limply under trees, bullock carts or simply by the side of mud roads leading to their improvised shelter.
Stragglers from adjoining villages continued to swell their numbers, fearing the resumption of shelling by government forces. Food and water were scarce.
"We are tense as we anticipate further retaliation from the Sri Lankan military," said Indrani, a 28-year-old mother of four who fled Sampur a week ago, immediately after the first round of bombing raids and artillery fire began.
It lasted 16 hours and killed 12 people, including children. In its wake it left smashed buildings, tangled power lines and blood-stained bomb and shell craters.
Sampur is one of numerous rebel-held pockets across northern and eastern Sri Lanka that are controlled by the LTTE and entry to which is through heavily manned checkpoints.
In such enclaves, the LTTE manages the local administration - runs schools, collects taxes, dispenses justice and even runs a bank. The Sri Lankan government continues to finance the LTTE-run regions, providing them with money and food but having no say in administration.
The government strikes followed last week's suicide attack in Colombo, which seriously wounded the country's top army commander and killed at least 11 others.
The assassination attempt was carried out by a 21-year old pregnant woman, reportedly a member of the LTTE's Black Suicide Squad, renowned for its skill at deploying against political, military, economic and civilian targets.
The Black Suicide Squad has executed about 240 attacks since its first in 1987.
The LTTE has not reacted to the military's air strikes. But security analysts believe it is only a matter of time before it does.
"The Tigers are masters of the unexpected, hitting high-profile targets after meticulous planning," a senior security analyst in Colombo said.
"We will fight back and retaliate," LTTE's district political chief S Elilan said, sitting under a photograph of his leader Vellupillai Prabhakaran and ringed by young baby-faced armed cadres at Sampur. He also professed ignorance at the LTTE's involvement in last week's suicide bombing.
"The country's future is being held hostage to the security situation and to frantic 'back channel' negotiations between the two sides," a foreign diplomat involved in the peace process said.
The LTTE is acknowledged as one of the world's most efficient, ruthless, committed and innovative guerrilla groups, and has successfully taken on the Sri Lankan and Indian armies, which are superior both in numbers and equipment.
Established by Prabhakaran, a 50-year-old portly Tamilian from Jaffna, in 1976, it has grown from a guerrilla force to a semi-conventional army backed by an unconventional navy, an enviable intelligence network and even a nascent air force.
Current security estimates indicate that it has a fighting cadre strength of between 8,000-10,000. Intelligence officials claim it has used the four-year ceasefire to regroup, re-arm and redeploy in preparation for renewed fighting.