Predictions of the pundits not to be trusted

DRAPIER/AN ISIDER'S GUIDE TO POLITIICS: One thing that has never failed to amaze Drapier over the last few years is just how…

DRAPIER/AN ISIDER'S GUIDE TO POLITIICS: One thing that has never failed to amaze Drapier over the last few years is just how often the predictions of our press punditry corps are spectacularly wide of the mark.

Like wannabee Denis Nordens, many deputies and senators now keep their own compilation of these media howlers.

Drapier particularly enjoyed those of one colleague. They include, for each main correspondent, the first date when they predicted the Government would fall. Apparently one of our principal political soothsayers began prophesying doom in September 1997 and has followed it up at least three times a year since.

Last year, the pundits declared with near unanimity that the Nice vote represented huge damage to Bertie Ahern - followed by steady and strong public support for both him and his party.

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The relevance of this is that anybody who claims to know the impact of Wednesday's tight vote is probably talking nonsense.

As for talk of a Government meltdown, a few figures-conscious deputies pointed out over a week ago that the IMS poll in Dublin South-East showed the referendum being heavily defeated, yet it also showed Fianna Fáil picking up an extra seat for the first time in 20 years, and at the expense of Fine Gael's active No campaigner Frances Fitzgerald.

Similarly, last week's MRBI poll showed the swing against the referendum at the same time as Michael Noonan's further decline in public esteem.

Certainly there were two sets of results, Dublin and the rest of the country, but equally there were two campaigns. Only a tiny number of Fine Gael or Labour No posters appeared outside Dublin. It would be interesting to hear the private opinions of the many Opposition deputies who strove mightily to keep their heads down in the campaign.

John Bruton was one of the few to show personal bravery, coming as he does from a broadly No part of his Meath constituency. The result there was a vindication of his personal stance.

As the No result was emerging Drapier was much amused to hear Ruairí Quinn, Michael Noonan and Dana each rush to the cameras to claim credit, each with declining degrees of credibility.

Drapier suspects Dana's performance on Thursday is one she will regret. She came across as a lightweight. In the past she proved wrong all those who had underestimated her. This time she may have overestimated herself.

Michael Noonan may feel his dismal standing in the polls required an aggressive role, but is this really going to help him win or retain seats in say Galway East and Cork North-West?

Over the years Drapier has had many differences with Bertie Ahern, but he put the lie to the sneering commentators who say he believes in nothing. There was more than a hint of exasperation in his voice when he pointed out that he remains the only politician to have set out exactly what he believes on this issue. This may well be central to public reaction.

The consequences of the referendum may be great or none, but a few things can be said confidently about the campaign.

The first is we need some form of intervention to stop the spread of Youth Defence-like campaigns. Many of the posters issued by mainstream parties and groups, such as "don't let her die", closely resembled the scare tactics of Youth Defence in the past. Reasoned debate cannot prosper when people believe they have to adopt such tactics to move public opinion.

The second is that it now seems only clear and largely uncontroversial referendum proposals can expect an easy passage. The wild shifts in opinion on divorce in 1996, Nice in 2001 and our latest vote show complex issues can get squeezed from the extremes.

Meanwhile, one of the more significant election developments of the last few weeks may have had nothing to do with the referendum. RTÉ's Prime Time item on Bertie Ahern's "moral compass" has set a rainbow of tongues wagging in the Dáil bar.

One of the milder comments was "hatchet job". Some even ventured to say they hadn't seen as comprehensive a job done on a politician since the glory days of the "Stickies" in the 1980s.

Some are saying the aggressive tactics of Fine Gael's press operation have had an impact on RTÉ, but this is a minority view. Wiser heads have said "the licence fee hasn't gone away you know". The Opposition saw this early, which is why each element promised RTÉ it will meet the full licence fee demand.