Even as the 44 new cardinals filed out into the bright sunshine in St Peter's Square yesterday in front of 40,000 onlookers, the counting game was already under way. When it comes to analysing the eighth consistory of the pontificate of Pope John Paul II, it seems the most essential tools are a pocket calculator and an atlas.
Assessment of the consistory inevitably focuses on the quantity and quality of the 44 names enrolled yesterday into what is often described as the world's most exclusive men's club.
First, why has John Paul II chosen to raise the number of cardinal electors to 135, 15 above the limit established by Pope Paul VI? Second, if, as seems possible, yesterday's "new boys" contain within their ranks the next bishop of Rome, then who is he and what sort of pope will he prove to be?
Given the obvious physical frailty of the Pope (he will be 81 in May) and given that consistories tend to be called once every three years, many inevitably believe yesterday's consistory could be the last called during John Paul II's pontificate.
That reflection has led to the conclusion that, in filling the College of Cardinals to unprecedented levels - 184 members, of whom 135 are under 80 and thus eligible to vote in the next conclave - the Pope has attempted to irrevocably stack the electoral cards.
This may be so, but one or two rather more banal observations must be made. For a start, the College of Cardinals was already packed out. With yesterday's appointments, the Pope has now chosen 125 of the 135 elector cardinals, or 92.5 per cent. However, even before yesterday's enrolments, he had already appointed 85 per cent of those entitled to vote. In essence, not a lot has changed.
It is also true that, in the aftermath of the Jubilee Year, John Paul II was keen not to lose the momentum created by a special moment in church life. Never anything less than militant on his evangelical mission, the Pope has chosen to hold a special consistory, bigger than ever before, to emphasise the spirit in which he wants to see the Catholic Church confront the third millennium.
In his homily in St Peter's Square yesterday, the Pope touched on both the universal nature of the Catholic Church and the challenges facing it in the new millennium:
"You [new cardinals] come from 27 countries and from four continents and you speak many different languages. Is this not proof of the church's ability, in every corner of the Earth, to understand people of different traditions and languages, and to announce the risen Christ to them?
"Every day the world is changing, becoming more complex . . . The enormous potential of scientific and technical progress, as well as the phenomenon of globalisation . . . obliges us to remain open to dialogue with each and every one, of whatever social class and creed."
If there are obvious explanations about the quantity of new cardinals, what about the quality of the new batch? It is here that we must reach for the calculator and atlas. Following yesterday's additions, we have a body of cardinal electors divided along the following geographic lines: 20 per cent Latin America; 19.3 per cent western Europe; 17.8 per cent Italy; 11.1 per cent eastern Europe; 9.6 per cent north America; 9.6 per cent Africa; 9.6 per cent Asia; 3 per cent Oceania.
Even if many of the appointments (to cities such as New York, Washington, Lima, Buenos Aires, London, Durban etc, and those of the 11 new curia cardinals) were almost to be taken for granted, we now have a new-look electoral body in which Europe is no longer in the majority and in which a traditional old-world force such as Italy (24 cardinals) is numerically weaker than the new world of Latin America, with 27.
It is thus tempting to conclude, in the wake of yesterday's consistory, that the next pope will come from Latin America. Papal elections, however, tend not to lend themselves to such facile analysis.
What is possible however is that the Iberic vote (Spain plus Latin America) may well ally itself with traditionalist elements in the church such as Opus Dei and Communione e Liberazione in order to promote a rigidly orthodox Pope cast in the awesome image of John Paul II, conservative on sexual mores but liberal on social justice issues.
If such a pope is to be found among yesterday's "new entries", then it could be the Italian, Cardinal Giovanni Battista Re, or the Brazilian, Cardinal Claudio Hummes of Sao Paulo, or the splendidly named Oscar Andres Rodriguez Maradiaga, the Archbishop of Tegucigalpa, Honduras, or indeed the first Opus Dei Cardinal, Juan Louis Cipriani Thorne of Lima.
Conclaves are not easily predictable and, at the moment, all bets are off.