Public opinion appears to be following the recovery road map alongside politicians
TODAY'S POLL by The Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI shows no significant change in party support since the beginning of the presidential campaign, except for a softening in support for Sinn Féin.
Fine Gael remains the most popular party, on 36 per cent, a gain of one point since our October 4th poll.
Labour has reclaimed the number two position. On 19 per cent, the party has gained two points, repeating its February 2011 election performance.
Sinn Féin has dropped three points (to 15 per cent), echoing the drop of four points for Martin McGuinness in yesterday’s presidential poll. The party appears to have peaked in our previous poll, which was conducted when McGuinness’s entry into the race was headline news.
Fianna Fáil appears to be anchored in the mid-teens, registering just 15 per cent (down one point) in this latest Irish Times poll. There have been suggestions that a vote for Seán Gallagher is a vote for Fianna Fáil, but there is no evidence in our poll that Fianna Fáil has benefited from its association with the presidential front-runner.
Independents/Others are on 14 per cent, a gain of two points, while the Greens are on 1 per cent, down one point.
Party leader satisfaction rankings are unchanged, with Enda Kenny still leading the charge (on 52 per cent, up one point), followed by Eamon Gilmore (41 per cent, down one point), Gerry Adams (32 per cent, down four points) and Micheál Martin (29 per cent, up one point). The Green Party leader, Eamon Ryan, has yet to make his mark, registering 11 per cent, a drop of five points.
What is remarkable about today’s poll findings is how little has changed since the general election in February. If we factor out the McGuinness effect on the Sinn Féin vote, party support figures today are almost a carbon copy of eight months ago.
Politically, we seem to be in stasis with party support levels frozen as a result.
Political support levels solidified in 2010 as the Fianna Fáil vote collapsed and Fine Gael and Labour emerged as the likely next parties of government. In every poll since January 2010, bar one, combined Fine Gael and Labour support has fallen into the 55 per cent to 57 per cent range.
Similarly, support for Fianna Fáil, Sinn Féin, Independents/ Others and the Greens has been fairly predictable of late, excepting the occasional burst for Sinn Féin.
None of this is surprising. Ireland is in a social and economic straitjacket. Quite simply, voters won’t change their minds about politicians if politicians are destined to follow an agreed recovery road map. But we cannot stay where we are forever.
Governments and parties fall in and out of favour so eventually the consensus that has emerged will be undone. We may be the poster boy of European recovery, but domestically we are treading water and the upcoming budget will likely be the first real threat to this consensus. Today’s poll contains some insights into where the initial fault lines may appear.
Fine Gael is potentially well positioned to withstand voter resistance to further austerity.
The upper middle-classes (ABs), who are convinced austerity is the path we must take and who are arguably better equipped to deal with more austerity, are strong supporters of Fine Gael (who have 43 per cent support among ABs). The expectation is that Fine Gael will dispense the medicine, so it may not be punished by the electorate when it does.
In addition to making tough decisions, there is also an expectation that Fine Gael will be fair and firm in the decisions it takes. If it is seen to target the vulnerable or shy away from tackling vested interests, it is open to losing the middle ground (middle classes, middle aged).
In particular, support for Fine Gael is below average (at 33 per cent) among 35-49 year olds, where much of the pensions, tax, mortgage and childcare pain is being felt. This group will be very sensitive to the decisions taken in December.
Sinn Féin is the antidote to Fine Gael, with a predominantly younger, working-class following. Consequently, a harsh budget is unlikely to affect Sinn Féin, which is seen by many voters as an alternative to more austerity.
If further cuts and taxes bring about a polarisation in, or re-evaluation of, party preference, Labour and Fianna Fáil are perhaps most open to swings in their electoral fortunes.
Support for both Labour and Fianna Fáil is firmly anchored regionally. Labour is strongest in Dublin specifically (on 26 per cent) and in urban areas generally (on 23 per cent), whereas Fianna Fáil is regionally the mirror image of Labour, with rural voters (21 per cent support) and voters outside Dublin (17 per cent support) showing above average levels of support.
But intriguingly, both Fianna Fáil and Labour voters cannot easily be defined in terms of their age, gender or social class. The absence of any differentiating socio-demographic characteristics can be a good or a bad thing.
On the plus side, a lack of an association with any one social grouping gives a party room to manoeuvre and to build an emotional connection with a broad swathe of voters. This is especially true for Fianna Fáil, which can craft a new identity once voters feel inclined to take a fresh look at the party.
Not so positive is the potential for voters to be confused as to what exactly the party stands for. This may be relevant to Labour if austerity accelerates the emergence of a clear left-right divide in Irish politics and Labour discovers an urgent need to position itself at one end of this political spectrum.
Change will happen, it’s only a question of when.