Coalition will likely motor on with the slimmest of Dáil majorities

And then it was one.

On paper the Coalition has been reduced to the slimmest of majorities now that Green Party TDs Neasa Hourigan and Patrick Costello have gotten the boot over their defiance of the Government on Wednesday night.

In reality the Government, now numbering 80 TDs, will motor on safe in the knowledge it still – just about – has a majority, and besides there are numerous Independent TDs that often vote with the Coalition.

Jennifer Bray and Sarah Burns report on how Ms Hourigan and Mr Costello have been stripped of the party whip – for six months at least – over their support of a Sinn Féin motion on the National Maternity Hospital.

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The pair are now free to vote as they wish in the Dáil – for the time being at least – and it will be interesting to see if they oppose the Government in the months ahead.

They had both opposed entering Coalition in 2020.

The two TDs will have to apply for re-admission into the Green Party fold at the end of their allotted time in the wilderness. It will also be interesting to see if they do.

There was a light tap on the wrist the last time Ms Hourigan voted against the Government – she lost Dáil speaking rights for two months, mostly during the 2020 summer recess.

This time party leader Eamon Ryan took more strident action after a parliamentary party meeting that saw “consensus” that the pair should be suspended for six months.

That action should offset any grumbling from Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael backbenchers who would certainly face such sanctions if they defied the Government.

Harry McGee looks at how the episode has impacted the Green Party and finds they are remarkably laid back about it all.

Ms Hourigan and Mr Costello were always seen as the most likely to go overboard and he finds the party “comfortable” with the stance it has taken with no fears for Green unity.

The Government previously lost two other TDs: Fine Gael's Eoghan Murphy, who left politics, and Marc MacSharry, who quit the Fianna Fáil parliamentary party ahead of a confidence motion in Simon Coveney.

Being reduced to a majority of one is not a comfortable position for any Government.

But if Irish politics has taught us one thing in recent times – a Fine Gael-led minority administration somewhat unbelievably lasted four years – it’s that Governments and those propping them up very much want to avoid elections.

We can expect that to hold true during the six months Ms Hourigan and Mr Costello are out in the cold and beyond if they don’t come back.

However, the Coalition would not want to be losing anyone else. Under such a scenario it would either be forced into deals with Independents or go to the polls.

Best Reads

Miriam Lord details how the unlikely alliance between the Rural Independent Group and People Before Profit forced the Dáil vote that saw the two Green Party TDs lose their party whip. The alliance, she says "proved the old saying that politics is the farce of the possible. Or something like that."

Denis Staunton and Barry Roche report on British foreign secretary Liz Truss's claim that her Government's plan to scrap parts of the Northern Ireland protocol do not breach international law. She is also said to be the British minister who made the infamous remarks that the impact of a no-deal Brexit on Ireland would only "affect a few farmers with turnips in the backs of their trucks".

Fine Gael TD Neale Richmond is proposing the establishment of a committee on Irish unity. Staunton and Pat Leahy report here.

Hit comedy show Derry Girls finished up on Wednesday night with a poignant take on the referendum on the Belfast Agreement. Granda Joe's line "what if no one else has to die" certainly pulled on the auld heartstrings. It also featured some famous political progeny. In his review Ed Power deems the series to have been "comedy gold" but suggests the hour-long running time of the finale was a bit of a stretch.

Playbook

Tánaiste Leo Varadkar is first up in the Dáil taking questions on his enterprise brief from 9am.

Minister for Higher Education Simon Harris follows at 10.30am.

Leaders’ Questions is at noon.

There is Government business in the afternoon and topical issues at 6.09pm.

The Committee on Gender Equality hears from Minister for Education Norma Foley at 9.30am.

The secretary general of the Department of Public Expenditure and Reform is at the Public Accounts Committee, also at 9.30am.

The Committee on International Surrogacy will quiz Maud de Boer-Buquicchio, former UN special rapporteur on the sale and sexual exploitation of children, at 9.30am.

The full Dáil, Seanad and Committee schedules can be found here, here, and here.