Labour is poised to gain a seat at the expense of Fine Gael in Carlow-Kilkenny, according to an opinion poll to be published today. The poll, in the Carlow Nationalist newspaper, suggests that Carlow faces the prospect of having no TD in the next Dáil.
The poll, by Bluebird Marketing a fortnight ago, indicates that Labour's Mr Michael O'Brien, who lost his seat on Kilkenny County Council in 1999, is poised to take the final seat.
As expected, Mr Liam Aylward of Fianna Fáil is set to top the poll and be elected on the first count, followed by his party colleague, Mr John McGuinness, in a strong second place, with Mr Phil Hogan of Fine Gael third.
Senator M.J. Nolan of Fianna Fáil is set to be the highest-placed Carlow candidate in fourth place, with about 10 per cent of the vote, giving Fianna Fáil a combined total just over 50 per cent.
That would be enough to take the party within a hair's breadth of taking three of the four seats, the poll suggests.
The projected outcome after transfers, however, is that Mr O'Brien will pip Mr Nolan and the other Carlow candidates, Mr Fergal Browne (FG), Ms Mary White (Greens) and Mr Jim Townsend (Labour), for the final seat.