Sore FG may have to soften old anger

IT seemed, on the surface, like another body blow for Fine Gael in Wicklow. The surprise announcement by the sitting TD, Mr Godfrey Timmins, that he was retiring at the next election followed the decision by the senator and Wicklow county councillor, Mr Shane Ross, to resign from the parliamentary party.

But all is not lost for Fine Gael in this sprawling and unpredictable five seater. The two events have provided Fine Gael headquarters with an opportunity to heal the wounds which fractured the north Wicklow organisation, following Mr Ross's imposition in the election in 1992, and devise a strategy to hold the seat.

Mr Ross was chosen by Mr John Bruton as the candidate likely to win the second Fine Gael seat, which was once held by Ms Gemma Hussey. But the move backfired badly. Up to 100 disgruntled members of the party left in protest and joined the "Voice of Wicklow" independent alliance. Mr Ross polled just under 3,000 first preference votes.

Those who left included Mr George Jones, a county councillor and member of Greystones town commissioners, who is seen locally by many as the candidate who might well have won the second seat. It is understood Mr Jones rejected approaches to rejoin the party within the past year, but there is speculation that he might now change his mind, given the fresh political scenario that has emerged.

Mr Jones, an insurance executive, was unavailable for comment this week - a member of his family said he was away on business - but it is clear that he and the others who left will not be easily persuaded to come back.

While Mr Jones has indicated that he will consider any overtures from party headquarters, he has let it be known that he will have to be mindful of the hurt suffered by others who left the party with him.

His fellow town commissioner in Greystones, Mr Derek Mitchell told The Irish Times: "I do not know if we will rejoin Fine Gael. I would be considerably influenced by what George Jones would do. But there is still a lot of hurt around."

That hurt runs deep. Some of those who left say they first learned of Mr Ross's imposition when they read about it in the Wicklow People, adding that Mr Bruton and party headquarters failed to handle it with the kind of delicacy used by Dr Garret FitzGerald when Ms Hussey, who lives in Dublin, first contested an election in Wicklow.

The vice chairman of the "Voice of Wicklow", Mr John Ryan, has gone so far as to call on Mr Bruton to publicly apologise to all those who defected. "Contrary to the party leader's intention that Senator Ross's arrival would lead to Fine Gael winning two seats in Wicklow, the party now faces the real prospect of having no Wicklow representation in the next, Dail."

Will Mr Bruton apologise? "The Taoiseach and the party are on a high after the recent opinion polls," said a Fine Gael source. "I think that Mr Bruton could see his way to engaging in a little judicious grovelling if it meant those who left rejoining and the seat being saved."

While Mr Timmins has no obvious successor, there is no shortage of willing aspirants, but so far, nobody has publicly declared an interest. Mr Tom Honan, an Arklow based solicitor and member of Wicklow County Council, was the party's by election candidate in July, 1995, when the independent, Ms Mildred Fox, scored a spectacular victory to hold the seat won in the general election by her late father, Mr Johnny Fox. Mr Honan secured a disappointing 13 per cent of the vote, compared to a poor 18 per cent in 1992 and a more traditional 28 per cent in 1989.

He is certain to seek a nomination, although he would not confirm it this week. "I am saying broadly that my hat is not out of the ring. If I contest the convention, I will inform the party members before announcing it publicly.

There is also speculation that Mr Timmins's son, Billy, an Army officer, might put his name forward, but it is thought unlikely. Mr Timmins indicated this week that no decision had been made by any member of the family about seeking a nomination.

Apart from the decline in the Fine Gael vote, there are some high profile candidates from outside the party seeking to replace Mr Timmins. The other four seats are currently held by Ms Fox, the Democratic Left Minister of State for the Environment, Ms Liz McManus, the Fianna Fail Leas Cheann Comhairle, Mr Joe Jacob, and Labour's Mr Liam Kavanagh.

Ms Fox, although a low profile Dail performer, is seen to have secured her seat through a strong constituency performance and her appeal to young people. Mr Jacob and Mr Kavanagh are also seen as strong, but Ms McManus could be in difficulty, given that her husband, Dr John McManus, failed to secure more than 7 per cent of the first preference vote in the by election. However, she is thought to have strengthened her position through her high profile junior ministry.

Knocking at the door is the independent Arklow urban councillor, Mr Nicky Kelly, who polled an impressive 4,556 first preference votes in the by election and is regarded locally as akin to a full time politician. Fianna Fail's Senator Dick Roche, a former TD for the constituency, has launched an intensive campaign to regain his old seat.

In such circumstances, there is no certainty that Fine Gael can hold the seat filled by the popular Mr Timmins since 1968, with the exception of a brief period between 1987 and 1989. Mr Jones, if he rejoins the party, would be an ideal candidate, in a two candidate strategy, given his profile as a county councillor and his base in the densely populated BrayGreystones area.

Fine Gael may need him and his colleagues more than they need Fine Gael. A conciliatory telephone call from the Taoiseach is likely, if it has not already been made.