Shooting of soldier brings dangerous days

THE death of Lance Bombardier Stephen Restorick has implications for everyone.

His colour photograph shows him handsome in his regimental outfit; it is a picture that no doubt adorns his parents' mantel piece. Every day of every year from now on they will stare at it with sorrow, regret, and hurt.

The North was supposed to be heading in the direction of peace. That gloomy TV footage of coffins, slow marches and funereal music was supposed to be a thing of the past.

Yesterday there was little evidence of change.

The standard Sinn Fein argument was recycled by Mitchel McLaughlin in a BBC Radio Foyle interview yesterday. Assuming the IRA killed Stephen Restorick, the ultimate responsibility lay with John Major for failing to bring Sinn Fein into the talks process.

The Taoiseach had a different perspective. Writing in the Belfast Telegraph earlier this week he listed various moves the two governments had made during and even after the ceasefire: setting up the forum, meeting Sinn Fein at political and official level, publishing the Framework Document, scaling back security, setting a date for all party talks, and helping to secure the chairmanship of the talks for Senator George Mitchell.

Clearly Mr Bruton is frustrated and angry that this was not considered sufficient to ensure the continued quiescence of the IRA. Historians, who are supposed to be above frustration and anger, may be able to tell us whether the two governments got it wrong or whether anything short of rapid progress to a united Ireland would have satisfied republican militants.

Unless the shooting at Bessbrook turns out to be a case of what the British army calls "negligent discharge", then it marks a significant escalation in the two pronged struggle being waged by the republican movement.

Last Monday, Gerry Adams told reporters he had sent a fax to 10 Downing Street. Last Wednesday night, it appears that the military wing of the movement shot one of Mr Major's soldiers. It was not so much a case of the republican movement having a ballot paper in one hand and an Armalite in the other, as a message in the fax machine and a sniper's bullet at the checkpoint.

In their outrage, people might not want to think of Stephen Restorick's killers as having the capacity for thought and many will be attracted by Lord Hailsham's phrase about "the baboons of the IRA".

But Seamus Mallon, who knows South Armagh and knows the mentality behind the Bessbrook killing, was precise and pointed in his comments to the media. He believed it was "a calculated, well planned murder" which was cold and premeditated and required "very, very special paramilitary expertise".

Once again we are hearing about the Sniper of South Armagh, this Jackal like figure who comes out of nowhere to strike down his enemies and has allegedly killed nine people already. But who is behind this near mythical figure and what is the thinking which guides his actions?

The dogs in the street have it that the republican movement is divided on the peace process. As the hardliners saw it, the British government was prepared to engage in talks while the IRA campaign was at its height but as soon as the ceasefire was declared all meaningful communication stopped, to be replaced by demands for a handover of arms.

What is happening now, according to sources, is not a case of "Cry havoc and let slip the dogs of war" but pay out the leash and allow some controlled and carefully calibrated forms of violence to placate the diehards.

The so called "phoney war" - earned the disdain of the militants and chants of "shoot to miss". But sources claim there has been a "strong message" to avoid civilian casualties and this might help to explain some of the near misses.

The good news in a generally bleak scenario, sources said, was that the Hume Adams relationship had the potential to bring about one more ceasefire after the British general election and this was hinted at in the IRA interview in last Saturday's Irish Times.

"Quite significant efforts are being made to hold IRA activity at the level where the militants are happy and the politicals are still on board," sources said.

There is a certain internal logic about this in republican terms, but it's a dangerous game.

POLITICAL contacts on the loyalist side are experiencing the deepest possible anxiety at the moment. They told The Irish Times they neither understood nor trusted Gerry Adams, although they knew where they stood with Martin McGuinness.

What game was the republican movement playing? Did they not realise they were pushing loyalist hardliners closer to the edge? Why revive the dread spectre of Loughinisland and Greysteel?

The fact that, allowing for some disturbing and dangerous incidents, the loyalist ceasefire has broadly remained in place up to time of writing is one of the more remarkable and surprising features of the current situation.

If it breaks down, nobody will be surprised. And if it breaks down, the loyalist political representatives will face a major problem do they denounce the actions of their associates and lose all influence over them or do they take refuge in "weasel words" and earn the contempt of the world's media and public opinion?

Loyalist politicians say their position differs from that of their republican counterparts.

They believe at least some of the Sinn Fein leadership are in a position to exercise a restraining influence over the actions of the IRA, whereas loyalist paramilitaries will take or leave the advice of their political spokesmen.

There have been disturbing suggestions of late that mainstream elements in the Ulster Volunteer Force, as distinct from say Mid Ulster dissidents, have been growing impatient and frustrated. So far this has not manifested itself in violent action and police sources were discounting rumours about a plan to assassinate a leading nationalist politician.

The forum elections showed that IRA actions do not necessarily have an adverse effect on Sinn Fein's performance at the polls but nevertheless the Westminster election is expected to see some scaling back on the military side.

At the same time there are alarming rumours about a "spectacular" on the British mainland. Should that happen in the run up to Tony Blair assuming office as Prime Minister, sources say he will launch a crackdown the likes of which has not been seen since the days of Roy Mason. Dangerous days, indeed.