Million to one

Slumdog Millionaire looks a shoo-in for best picture on Sunday, but could it fall at the final hurdle? MICHAEL DWYER picks his winners

Slumdog Millionaireshed its underdog status months ago to emerge as the firm favourite for the most coveted Oscar – best picture. Danny Boyle's tough yet exhilarating fable has taken top honours at all the ceremonies regarded as bellwethers during the awards season.

But could there be a repetition of four years ago when front-runner Brokeback Mountainfaltered at the final hurdle and lost out to Crashfor best picture? To its disadvantage, Slumdogis hardly a typical Oscar winner. It has no "name" actors and about a fifth of the dialogue is in Hindi and sub-titled in English.

Then there has been the smear campaign, with allegations that the child actors in the film were paid a pittance. Boyle and his team comprehensively refuted those claims and revealed details of financial support and trust funds they established for the children. The timing of the allegations before last Tuesday’s deadline for final ballots is regarded as highly suspicious.

Meanwhile, the best prospect for an Irish win on Sunday is Steph Green's Dublin-set New Boy, based on a Roddy Doyle story and shortlisted for best live action short. Irish producer Redmond Morris is nominated for best picture with The Reader. Irish production designer Nathan Crowley is a nominee for The Dark Knight. And Martin McDonagh, the London-born son of Irish parents, is nominated in the best original screenplay category for In Bruges.

BEST ACTRESS
Anne Hathawayand Melissa Leoare first-time nominees. Angelina Jolieis on her second nomination. She won best supporting actress for Girl, Interrupted(1999). Kate Winsletis on her sixth nomination in 11 years, and has yet to win. And record-holder Meryl Streep is back in the arena for the 15th time.

Streep gives one of her outstanding performances in Doubt. However, Winslet has been building momentum for The Reader. If any other nominee slips past the favourites it would be Hathaway. It's the closest race to call, but my instinct is that Streep has the edge.

THE ODDS

8/13Kate Winslet ( The Reader)

7/2Anne Hathaway ( Rachel Getting Married)

7/2Meryl Streep ( Doubt)

16/1Angelina Jolie ( Changeling)

33/1Melissa Leo ( Frozen River)

OUR TIP:Meryl Streep


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
The only former winner is Marisa Tomei, who took this award for My Cousin Vinny(1992). Amy Adamsis on her second nomination after Junebug(2005), as is Penélope Cruz, who was shortlisted for Volver(2006). Viola Davisand Taraji P Hensonare first-time nominees.

Cruz has the full weight of the Weinstein machine behind her, but her entertaining portrayal of a temperamental Spaniard doesn't have the weight of Davis in her powerful big scene with Streep in Doubt. And while Tomei cannot be ruled out, I'll stick my neck out here and opt or Davis.

THE ODDS

4/7Penélope Cruz ( Vicky Cristina Barcelona)

10/3Viola Davis ( Doubt)

5/1Marisa Tomei ( The Wrestler)

14/1Amy Adams ( Doubt)

16/1Taraji P Henson (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button)

OUR TIP:Viola Davis


BEST ACTOR

Sean Pennis the only one in the ring with Mickey Rourkefor this trophy.

Sentiment will be heavily on Rourke's side, and his comeback from the ashes of his career will be inspirational to many Oscar voters. Another disadvantage for Penn is that he won this award as recently as 2003, for Mystic River. This is Penn's fifth nomination in 14 years.

Penn's portrayal of murdered gay San Fransisco politician Harvey Milk is arguably the richest of his career and far more dramatically complex than Rourke's heroic performance in The Wrestler.

THE ODDS

4/7Mickey Rourke ( The Wrestler)

15/8Sean Penn ( Milk)

8/1Frank Langella ( Frost/Nixon)

25/1Brad Pitt ( The Curious Case of Benjamin Button)

66/1Richard Jenkins ( The Visitor)

OUR TIP:SEAN PENN


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Philip Seymour Hoffmancollected the Best Actoraward for Capotein 2006, and Heath Ledgerand Robert Downey Jrwere each nominated once in that category. Josh Brolinand Michael Shannonare first-time nominees.

Ledger is the seventh actor to receive a posthumous Oscar nomination, but only one has won (Peter Finch, Network, 1976). The others were Jeanne Eagles ( The Letter, 1929), James Dean ( East of Eden, 1955, and Giant, 1956), Spencer Tracy ( Guess Who's Coming to Dinner, 1967), Ralph Richardson ( Greystoke, 1984) and Massimo Troisi ( Il Postino, 1994). Ledger is certain to win.

THE ODDS

1/33Heath Ledger ( The Dark Knight)

20/1Robert Downey Jr ( Tropic Thunder)

20/1Philip Seymour Hoffman ( Doubt)

25/1Josh Brolin ( Milk)

50/1Michael Shannon ( Revolutionary Road)

OUR TIP:HEATH LEDGER

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Mike Leigh's Oscar nomination, his fourth for a screenplay, is compensation for the outright snubbing of Happy-Go-Luckyon his home turf in the Bafta nominations.

Martin McDonaghwon the Oscar for best live action short with his first film, Six Shooter(2005). Andrew Stantonwon the animated feature Oscar for Finding Nemo(2003). Courtney Huntand Dustin Lance Blackare first-time nominees.

Wall-Eis in with a shout and McDonagh is in contention. That said, the award belongs to Black for his impeccably structured screenplay for Milk.

THE ODDS

1/2Milk (Dustin Lance Black)

3/1Wall-E (Andrew Stanton, Jim Reardon, Pete Docter)

5/1In Bruges (Martin McDonagh)

16/1Happy-Go-Lucky (Mike Leigh)

18/1Frozen River(Courtney Hunt)

OUR TIP:Milk

BEST ADAPATED SCREENPLAY

Two of the nominees are American former winners: Eric Roth, who won for the wretched Forrest Gump(1994) and John Patrick Shanley, who won for the delightful Moonstruck(2007).

The shortlist is completed by British second-time nominees: Simon Beaufoy( The Full Monty, 1997), David Hare( The Hours, 2002) and Peter Morgan( The Queen, 2006).

The crucial obstacle for four of the nominated screenplays is that the other one is Slumdog Millionaire.

THE ODDS

2/7Slumdog Millionaire (Simon Beaufoy)

5/1The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Eric Roth, Robin Swicord)

8/1Frost/Nixon (Peter Morgan)

10/1The Reader (David Hare)

25/1Doubt (John Patrick Shanley)

OUR TIP:SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE

BEST DIRECTOR

In a remarkable hat-trick, Stephen Daldryis on his third nomination, having made only three films; the others were Billy Elliot(2000) and The Hours(2002).

Former child actor Ron Howardgets his second nomination in this category, having won for the forgettable A Beautiful Mind(2001). Gus Van Santwas nominated for Good Will Hunting(1997), while the front-runners Danny Boyleand David Fincherare first-time nominees.

The award belongs to Boyle this year.

THE ODDS

1/6Danny Boyle (Slumdog Millionaire)

5/1David Fincher (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button)

20/1Gus Van Sant (Milk)

22/1Stephen Daldry (The Reader)

25/1Ron Howard (Frost/Nixon)

OUR TIP:DANNY BOYLE


BEST PICTURE

"I love Danny Boyle's movie. It's breathtaking. It's a shame they're going to come in second." So says US distributor Harvey Weinstein whose voracious appetite for Academy Awards is legendary in the business. He's pulling out all the stops to secure a win for The Reader.

The strongest competition for Slumdog Millionaireis more likely to come from The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, which has been a much bigger US box office success than the other four nominees. However, Slumdoglooks unstoppable for the best picture Oscar, which is always the last trophy to be presented at the ceremony, and I expect that by then it will have amassed another six Academy Awards on Sunday night.

THE ODDS

1/7Slumdog Millionaire

9/2The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

25/1Milk

33/1Frost/Nixon

40/1The Reader

OUR TIP:SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE


    * Oscar odds courtesy of Boylesports