Cool heads and measured words help agreement to ride the storm

There are spins and ultra-positive spins. One Dublin source, reflecting on the quarrels of the past week, had this to say: "Well, at least if people weren't aware of the North-South dimension of the Belfast Agreement they're certainly aware of it now."

With Micheal Martin, Seamus Mallon and Bairbre de Brun converging on Enniskillen today, we have an example of a North-South solution to a North-South problem, and, indeed, cross-Border matters impinging even deeper into the public consciousness. David Trimble plays it tough and nationalists respond pragmatically and in kind. Unionists and nationalists are operating to keep their constituencies satisfied, and doing it with some degree of ingenuity. Meanwhile, the Belfast Agreement sails on, rolling a little but surprisingly stable considering the political buffeting of the past week. Politics as the art of the possible still has pre-eminence.

Brian Cowen and Peter Mandelson were in London yesterday to try to steady the ship. What they and the British and Irish governments cling to is that, notwithstanding all the problems, David Trimble and Gerry Adams want the agreement to succeed.

That won't stop the recriminations, but at least there are possibilities out there. Centrally, what this is about is overcoming this immediate difficulty and then creating the conditions so that when, as is expected, the Ulster Unionist Council meets again in January, Mr Trimble can with some degree of credibility argue that the IRA is in the business of putting its arms beyond use.

Failing that, we are almost certainly into review, and possibly suspension, of the agreement, since Ulster Unionists and the other parties must then crank into Westminster and local government election mode. Review could well lead to collapse.

The Government, Mr Trimble, Mr Mallon and Ms de Brun have handled this latest spat in a measured and sensible fashion. They all held their ground but avoided any strident language. Mr Trimble said nationalists could travel to Enniskillen if they wished but it would merely be a "face-saving" exercise because the North-South Ministerial Council element of the meeting was invalid.

On UTV last night, Mr Trimble said nationalists must approach the current deadlock in a restrained fashion. "What we have done doesn't necessarily cause any damage to the institutions. What might cause the damage is the reaction. Here again I would counsel people to react calmly and not to make matters worse," he said.

There may have been implicit criticism of the presence of the Minister of Health, Mr Martin, in Enniskillen today in his remarks but if that was the case at least his language was temperate. He wasn't getting over-excited.

Equally, Dublin, the SDLP and Sinn Fein insisted the meeting in Enniskillen of Mr Martin, the Deputy First Minister, Mr Mallon, and the Northern Health Minister, Ms de Brun, was to preserve, to use Mr Mallon's phrase, "the operation and integrity" of the North-South element of the Good Friday deal.

Ms de Brun, in her press conference on Wednesday, hit the right notes. She would continue to meet her ministerial responsibilities despite Mr Trimble's veto against Sinn Fein. Her choice of language about Mr Trimble was also careful but pointed.

"He has managed to ensure there will not be a meeting of the North-South Ministerial Council, but what he has not done, and will not do, is to prevent me doing my utmost to carry out the work that I as Minister have undertaken to do for his constituents, as well as my own, for everybody in this society," she said.

The next NSMC, when Mr Martin McGuinness is due to meet his Dublin counterpart, Dr Woods, isn't until November 24th, which buys some time to find a way out of this North-South difficulty.

A resolution though, as Ulster Unionists demand, is contingent on the IRA engaging with Gen de Chastelain and whether that can be achieved in the space of three weeks is fairly problematic. The conditions for re-engagement do not exist, said Mr Adams yesterday.

A long game and a short game are being played here. Today the Government, nationalists and unionists should emerge with honour preserved. "Given the sound and fury of recent days there is a fine understanding from all sides of what is happening [today in Enniskillen], and why it is happening," said a London insider. In the longer term, the focus is on January, when Jeffrey Donaldson may reintroduce a "no guns, no Sinn Fein in government" motion to the Ulster Unionist Council.

As one informed observer put it yesterday, we may be facing into something akin to a "cattle fair in the west of Ireland". By that he meant that a breakthrough may demand some Christmas largesse from Mr Mandelson. IRA movement on arms in the first instance may depend on Mr Mandelson modelling the Police Bill, due to be completed at the end of the month, more to the liking of republicans.

The British and Irish governments are in continuing talks on policing, but there are still great difficulties and sensitivities here.

Sinn Fein is also pressing for further substantial demilitarisation measures and, it is understood, an amnesty for republicans "on the run".

Mr Trimble, if he is to accept substantial police reform, will need some benefits in return. One possibility is that Mr Mandelson could postpone the local elections until 2002, which would buy time for the UUP's hard-pressed councillors.

The arms inspectors, Cyril Ramaphosa and Martti Ahtisaari, by their visit to Belfast yesterday reinforced the idea that the process of putting weapons beyond use is a serious business. They predicted more IRA arms inspections within five months and insisted, to the satisfaction of Ken Maginnis and contrary to some London newspaper reports, that the arms and explosives examined were deadly and dangerous.

Five months, though, would be too long for Mr Trimble. For the sake of the agreement, more arms inspections by January and real engagement with the decommissioning body probably will be the least the First Minister will require to survive another showdown with Mr Donaldson and the Ulster Unionist Council.

As Ulster Unionist Minister Mr McGimpsey said on Wednesday: "Sinn Fein/IRA must re-engage with de Chastelain. If they do that, that gives us something to take to the Ulster Unionist Council. At the moment, we would not have a leg to stand on."