1. The odds on EMU starting have fallen sharply, haven't they? No - while things looked rocky for a while, the U-turn on fiscal policy by the new French government and the outcome of the Amsterdam Summit have produced a situation where the odds are now higher than ever.
2. It could still be delayed couldn't it? Highly unlikely. The time for credible delay has passed - save in truly exceptional circumstances such as failure by the IT industry across Europe to be ready on time.
3. Does the fact that we voted for EMU mean Ireland has to join if we qualify? Take the common sense rather than the legal approach - we could always disqualify ourselves by leaving the EMS should the need arise.
4. Even if we qualify we won't beallowed join. More nonsense.
5. The single currency is all about complicated economics that I don't understand. Not at all. It is increasingly obvious that it is essentially a political matter grounded on economics.
6. It's going to be negative for Ireland. The only extensive study, which was carried out by the ESRI, concluded that it would be marginally positive. This, moreover, was based on conservative assumptions.
7. Why then are economists so worried about it? Many of them will lose their jobs as local markets contract and the remainder will have less to talk about given that policy will be set in Frankfurt or Brussels.
8. Is sterling likely to repeat its 1992 performance when it fell by 20 per cent overnight? No, but it could well move by 20 per cent over a period of time just as it has done recently, albeit in an upwards direction.
9. Will such volatility not pose huge problems for Irish exporters and importers? Yes, joining EMU without sterling would be bad for them, however, they also accept that staying outside along with sterling would be even worse.
10. The Irish pound is weak now - is that why some say we will have to revalue before joining? The pound's current problem is that it is strong, not weak, because it has been dragged up by sterling against our EMS partners.
11.]Why then are people talking about revaluing prior to joining the single currency? A revaluation will move the goal posts not the ball. The existing EMS central rate against the deutschmark is DM2.41 whereas our current rate is about DM2.70. A 10 per cent revaluation would raise the central rate to DM2.65 which would then become the rate which would be fixed for all time on the 1st January, 1999. 12. I heard someone on the radio say that revaluation was unlikely. It makes eminent sense for the authorities to keep their options open and avoid showing their hand until they have to. Ultimately, however, there is a strong likelihood that we will have to revalue.
13. What will the rate against sterling be at that time? No one knows because sterling will continue to fluctuate outside of the EMS. It now looks very overvalued and, in time, should fall back to the DM2.50-2.60 range which implies that the punt/sterling rate should return to a 5p range either side of parity.
14. Is it true that interest rates willfall? The best way to approach this is to focus on the differential between Irish and German rates over time. Since the beginning of the 1960s, Irish rates have been three percentage points higher on average. This differential will disappear.
15. Will inflation be lower? Yes, both lower and more stable which will make it easier to plan.
16. With every Tom, Dick and Harry likely to qualify, the euro will surely be weak. This common view in the markets is insulting to central bankers such as the Italian governor who is among the most hawkish in his approach to monetary policy. The ECB will be the most independent central bank ever which should ensure that the euro will be strong.
17. How can this be so if they are going to fudge the qualification criteria? There can be no question of fudge - this would leave the whole process open to legal challenge, for example, in Germany.
18. How then will countries with budget deficits above 3 per cent and debt ratios higher than 60 per cent qualify? The treaty provisions in the fiscal area are very complex and precise attainment of these figures is not required. Ireland, for example, has been deemed to have satisfied these criteria in each of the past four years even though our debt ratio was well above 60 per cent.
19. Will the Stability Pact lead to further depression in Europe? The Stability Pact is a good housekeeping rule designed to get budgets back on an even keel by ensuring that they balance over time. This will mean continued cut-backs in some countries which is not necessarily a bad thing - look at what happened in Ireland after we curbed spending.
20. Can the markets blow EMU apart? There is little or no chance of this once the new European Central Bank is up and running. Prior to then anything can happen. To reduce speculation over the next year and a half it has been suggested that the authorities should make an early announcement of the way in which the exchange rates will be fixed.
21. Is EMU likely to last forever? Only if it leads to political union as well, which seems unlikely.
Pat McArdle is head of EMU Planning at Ulster Bank Markets. The views expressed above are personal.
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