Recovery in manufacturing picks up speed as new orders increase

Recovery in the manufacturing sector is gathering pace, according to the latest NCB purchasing managers' index (PMI). It suggests that the international recovery under way is benefiting manufacturers, with a pick-up in orders and rising production levels.

The seasonally adjusted index - a composite indicator designed to measure activity in the sector - rose to 53.7 in February from 52.2 the previous month.

Any reading above 50 indicates expansion in activity and the index has remained above this level for six successive months.

The size of the increase in February "suggested that the rate of improvement in business conditions was sharper than that recorded a month earlier," according to NCB's commentary on the figures.

"Manufacturing output and new orders are now at quite elevated levels," Mr Dermot O'Brien, NCB's chief economist, said.

New orders rose sharply last month and the rate of increase in these orders was faster than that recorded the previous month. Firms covered by the survey reported that rising exports reflected improved conditions on international markets.

Production levels increased for the sixth month running and the rate of expansion of output was slightly stronger than that recorded the previous month. In turn, this is reflected in a pick-up in input orders.

"Furthermore, the rate of growth of purchasing activity was sharper than that recorded in the previous month," NCB said.

This increased demand has put raw material suppliers under pressure and lead times for delivery have increased.

There has been a steady decline in manufacturing employment over the past couple of years as lower-value operations closed and exporters struggled in difficult market. The latest index results give some encouragement in this area.

They show the index moving above the key 50 no-change level. It had moved above this level in October and November last year, before falling back in more recent months. The trend will now be closely watched to see if it can consolidate above the 50 level.

While the February survey indicated some acceleration in the recovery of manufacturing here, the euro-zone survey, also published yesterday, suggested that the strength of the euro is starting to curb recovery in the euro-zone manufacturing industry.

A parallel British survey also indicated the strength of the pound against the enfeebled dollar is holding factory activity back.

The February surveys, commissioned by Reuters, in which thousands of companies were asked how their businesses were placed, showed expansion was continuing in both the euro zone and Britain, but the hoped-for acceleration had not emerged.

Economists said they could force the ECB to consider cutting rates, although not for some months, following recent anguished comments from leaders of major euro-zone economies about problems in winning export orders.

The Reuters Euro Zone PMI recorded a headline figure of 52.5 - unchanged from January and above the 50 level that separates growth from contraction.

"It does indicate that the strength of the euro is having something of an effect on the manufacturing sector," said Mr James Knightley at ING Financial Markets in London.

The British equivalent, the CIPS/Reuters PMI, fell to 53.2, its lowest level for five months, from a downwardly revised 55.8 in January.