IAWS puts Greencore in shade

At the beginning of the year, Greencore was worth almost 80 per cent more than its main rival on the Irish market IAWS. Nine months later, Greencore's stock market value has slumped from £526 million (€668 million) to £419 million while the value of IAWS has soared from £294 million to £398 million.

Not much separating them now in terms of market value, but when it comes to ratings they are streets apart with IAWS's latest post-results upgrade putting it on twice the prospective price/earnings multiple of Greencore. It's difficult to see that gap narrowing.

Greencore's prospective p/e of little more than 7 inevitably generates speculation that the group could become the focus of a bid. But it is difficult to see the Government willingly let the national EU sugar quota - which has always been vested in Greencore and its semi-state predecessor Irish Sugar - pass into unfriendly hands. And it is the domestic sugar business that is the cash cow and foundation of Greencore's business.

Greencore's demise and IAWS's rise has led to more speculation of a merger between the two. All sorts of logic points to a merger - Greencore/IAWS would be the leaders in the Irish flour, sugar, malt and fertiliser markets, have substantial exposure to the British malting industry and a booming consumer foods business in the form of IAWS's Cuisine de France and Delice de France operations.