OECD unemployment at record low of 4.9% despite interest rates hikes and inflation pressures

Strength of labour markets globally has confounded policymakers

Unemployment across the industrialised bloc of OECD countries remained at a record low of 4.9 per cent for a seventh consecutive month in January despite cost-of-living pressures and higher interest interests.

The strength of labour markets globally has confounded policymakers. An aggressive sequence of interest rate hikes would typically be associated with rising levels of unemployment. Irish unemployment was recorded at 4.3 per cent in February.

However, the Paris-based Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development’s (OECD) said the unemployment rate was stable in 12 of 38 OECD countries, but close to its record low in only seven countries, including Canada, France, Germany, and the United States.

The OECD’s headline rate corresponded to 33.2 million people, close to the record low reached in July 2022.

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In the EU and the euro area the unemployment rates remained stable, close to their record low, at 6.1 per cent and 6.7 per cent respectively.

The unemployment rate was stable or decreased in half of the euro area countries. The largest decline was observed in Greece, where the unemployment rate reached its lowest level since December 2009, returning to the declining path observed since January 2022. However, Lithuania and Portugal recorded marked increases.

The agency noted that the OECD unemployment rate for women fell slightly from 5.2% to 5.1%, and was now 0.5 percentage point higher than the rate for men, which remained broadly stable.

Eoin Burke-Kennedy

Eoin Burke-Kennedy

Eoin Burke-Kennedy is Economics Correspondent of The Irish Times