Bears begin to growl

Sooner or later, the bears had to be proved right and it seems that time may now be upon us. The travails of the markets, reeling as they are under the triple whammy of the Asian crisis, the threatened collapse of the Russian financial sector and the nerves induced by the US military strikes in Afghanistan and Sudan, are unlikely, however, to provoke much gloating from the "I told you so" brigade. After all some of the prophets of doom have been forecasting a market reversal for almost two years now. Even with the recent troubles, most investors would be worse off had the followed advice to sell at that time.

Debate among analysts is now centring on whether global markets are indeed entering a bearish phase or merely making a correction. Increasingly, the view is that we might be in for a sustained period of uncertainty as there seems little likelihood of imminent good news either in Asia or in Russia.

Interim results: A handful of Irish companies release interim figures this week, the biggest of them being Irish Permanent and Independent Newspapers. While the former - the State's biggest mortgage lender - is profiting by the current strength of the economy, the latter is likely to show the early stages of the woes currently afflicting its South African and Australasian ventures. Elsewhere, interest will be on First National which produces its last set of interim figures as a mutual society and on Arnotts, which should show hearty growth with a contribution from its enlarged Dublin flagship store in Henry St. Kingspan and Readymix also report half-year figures and neither should disappoint.

Monday

Results: BGR (H1), Coventry Building Society, First National Building Society (H1), Gowrings (H1), Hambro Countrywide (H1), Jumbo International (H1), Lavendon Group (H1), NSB Retail (H1), SAirGroup (H1).

A.G.M.: Eagles, Jurys Hotel Group.

Indicators: German import/export prices (Jul).

Others: US Justice Department, state attorneys general due to file reply briefs in antitrust case against Microsoft.

Tuesday

Results: Aggreko (H1), Cairn Energy (H1), Deutsche Lufthansa (H1), Gibbs Energy (H1), Fortis (H1), Irish Permanent (H1), Kalon Group (H1), Readymix (H1), UBS (H1), Vymura (H1).

A.G.M.: Azlan Group, Liberfabrica.

Indicators: US consumer confidence (Aug) and existing home sales (Jul); French consumer prices (Jul), trade balance (Jun) and housing starts (Jul).

Others: Danish government due to present draft 1999 budget

Wednesday

Results: Allied Carpets, Arnotts (H1), Cakebread Robey & Co (H1), Domnick Hunter (H1), Mallett (H1), Mulberry Group, Pegasus Group (H1).

A.G.M.: Dunedin Enterprise.

Meetings: European Central bank executive board meets.

Indicators: British trade in goods (Jun) and non-EU trade (Jul); US durable goods orders (Jul); Japanese retail sales (Jul); German consumer prices (Aug) and producer prices (Jul).

Others: DHL Export Awards presentation.

Thursday

Results: Datrontech Group (H1), Delcam (H1), FLS Industries (H1), Independent Newspapers (H1), Keller Group (H1), Kingspan Group (H1), Ladbroke Group (H1), Novartis (H1), Reckitt & Colman (H1), Rexam (H1), Rolls-Royce (H1), Stadium Group (H1), Workplace Technolgies (H1).

A.G.M.: Cedardata, Division Group (e.g.m.), Scottish & Newcastle.

Indicators: Confederation of British Industry monthly trends survey (Aug); US real GDP (Q2), price index (Q2), implicit deflator (Q2), help wanted index (Jul) and weekly jobless and monetary data; Canadian raw materials (Jul).

Others: Avonmore Waterford Group & Tesco announce details of new quality assured beef supply partnership at event attended by Minister for Agriculture, Mr Joe Walsh; Publication of Reuters asset allocation surveys for Britain, the US, Japan and Europe.

Friday

Results: Antonov, Baillie Gifford Bond International Software, Braime (TF & JH), VA Stahl (H1).

A.G.M.: Dyson J&J, Keystone Software, Latchways, Oglesby & Butler.

Indicators: Irish retail sales index (Jun); US personal income/spending data (Jul), Michigan Sentiment Survey (Aug) and New York NAPM (Aug); Japanese unemployment (Jul), job ratio (Jul) and consumer prices (Jul and Aug); French unemployment (Jul) and industrial production (Jun).

Others: Reuters monthly survey on British interest rate expectations ahead of meeting of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee.