Regulators have cut their estimate of future Irish electricity needs despite signs of growing pressure on supplies, sparking fears that the State will not secure enough power to meet increasing demand.
The Commission for Regulation of Utilities (CRU) and national grid operator EirGrid are preparing to seek bids from developers to build new power plants that will begin supplying energy in 2030-2031.
However, information circulated to the industry by EirGrid shows the regulator has calculated that Ireland will need power plants capable of generating 6,914 mega watts (MW) of electricity during that period.
This is lower than a similar communication last year for 2028-2029, which calculated the figure at 7,100MW.
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Two industry sources say the figures indicate the process could end up securing less electricity than will be required by 2030-2031.
One asked why the State agencies were planning to buy less electricity when there was already “not enough to go around”.
The second argued that the system for securing new power plants needed to take new challenges into account, including the fact that global demand for these facilities had lengthened the time taken to build them.
The approach taken by the CRU and EirGrid had not changed since a Government review, prompted by a crisis five years ago, had highlighted flaws in their system, the person said.
News of the reduction in future estimates of power needs comes days after it emerged that EirGrid twice called on temporary emergency power plants to shore up electricity supplies this summer.
The latest incident was during last week’s eclipse, which shut solar plants, leaving little or no renewable electricity on the system as demand outran expectations.
EirGrid subsequently confirmed that it had also called on one of four temporary emergency power plants in the State in June.
The upcoming T-4 auction, as it is known, is intended to secure enough power plants to ensure the country has adequate supplies of electricity, including backup power, for the 12 months from September 2030.
The CRU determines the total capacity needed while EirGrid and System Operator Northern Ireland oversee the auction, which will take place early next year.
A statement from the commission stressed that the initial information published this month by EirGrid would not necessarily determine the scale of new power plants secured through the auction.
“Adjustments may be made for factors such as reserves, forecast changes, capacity to be procured in later auctions and capacity expected to be operational but not participating in the auction,” said the regulator.
The final figure will not be determined until EirGrid sets out the auction’s terms in March 2027.
The CRU must take the likely cost to consumers into account, among other factors, when setting down the amount of new power generation such auctions should secure.
As consumers ultimately foot the bill for building power plants, the regulator must balance their interests against calls from industry and other groups to boost capacity, one source explained.
The auction is the first to follow the introduction this year of rules requiring new data centres to supply electricity to the market and to draw 80 per cent of their power from renewables.
Data centres consume about one fifth of electricity in the Republic and close to 50 per cent of what is used in Dublin.
Future auctions could require more or less power than the one scheduled for next March, depending on circumstances, an informed source pointed out.
EirGrid noted that capacity auctions are designed to promote “short-term and long-term interests of consumers of electricity” throughout Ireland, North and South. That includes assessing price, reliability and security of supplies.
