A global trend-watcher wants to save us from our over-reliance on experts
Philip Tetlock
Only 26 per cent of super-forecasters expect a vaccine before April 2021
Boris Johnson urged to say if he agreed with views of ‘superforecaster’ Andrew Sabisky
Like poker players, investors should learn to think in terms of probabilities
Research shows people see value in humility after recognising limited understanding
Expert predictions tend to be no more accurate than chance, research indicates
Despite protests at home and abroad, a deep swathe of the US electorate backs the president
However, market prices still ‘trounce’ polls and pundits in forecasting events
If you had described your iPhone in 1976, Friedman would not have understood you
‘That’s the card of stress, of anxiety, of things being all over the place’: we ask two tarot card readers how the general election will go
There’s little reason to have faith in market strategists’ 2016 predictions
A general rule of thumb: the most confident are the least accurate, according to research
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