Winless Wales staring down both barrels

Italy v Wales:Welsh rugby and crisis are words that have often cropped up in the same sentence. A year ago, with the national coach, Mike Ruddock, walking away and the captain, Gareth Thomas, suffering a mini-stroke, the Grand Slam champions were in a combustible state. Now Gareth Jenkins, brought in as a firefighter but a coach still searching for a first win over a major nation, threatens to be engulfed.

Put simply, Wales must win at Stadio Flaminio this afternoon or face the prospect of the wooden spoon and perhaps a bucket of whitewash after England visit next Saturday. Jenkins's side are trapped in the basement of the Six Nations after defeat in Paris a few hours after Italy had posted their first away win of the Six Nations two weeks ago with that record 37-7 victory in Scotland.

There were enough signs at the Stade de France, where Wales took an early 14-3 lead, to suggest they can turn a corner. When they have the ball Wales look inventive and dangerous. But lurking around that corner today is the Italian juggernaut. A former forward himself, Jenkins knows his team must compete up front and it is no coincidence he has named five forwards on his bench along with the returning Thomas and that scrummaging sessions this week have been intense.

Gethin Jenkins and Chris Horsman, their strongest scrummaging props, have been picked to front up to the Italians. Jenkins has also picked a well balanced back row of Alix Popham, Ryan Jones and Martyn Williams. Jones believes Italy are a limited side and Wales will not make the same naive mistakes Scotland made.

He said: "Italy's tails will certainly be up after their win over Scotland. They are big, strong men who have developed hugely over the years and they've got a very good set-piece and they like a structured game, but we hope to have something extra in the tank. Italy are hugely physical but if we can break up the game a bit and play an open style then hopefully they won't be able to deal with that."

Tom Shanklin, a veteran of Wales's defeat here four years ago, said: "We are the better team and we won't fall into the same trap as Scotland by throwing those reckless miss-passes. They have good players in the back division but don't play well as a unit."

Italian rugby, though, is buoyant. The improvement against England and the humbling of Scotland have dramatically raised the team's media profile.

Coach Pierre Berbizier has made changes despite the historic victory at Murrayfield. The Argentinian-born Ramiro Pez, now playing in France with Narbonne, returns at outhalf in place of Andrea Scanavacca.

Enforced changes see Matteo Pratichetti replace Andrea Masi on the wing and Carlos Nieto come in for Martin Castrogiovanni at prop.

Wales's forwards will hope to avoid being drawn, like England, into an attritional forward battle. Jenkins's side have more speed and guile than the Italians outside the scrum but the Welsh fans pouring into the Eternal City face an anxious 80 minutes.