Liam Toland: Ireland well-placed to exploit limited Italy’s evident weaknesses

For the third weekend running events in other grounds are tearing my attention from Ireland where my PhD is progressing on English decision- making and psychology.

I want England to win tomorrow. I want them to win for many reasons; the tournament needs them, they’re our neighbours and most importantly given an option I’d prefer to meet them over the Wallabies at the semi-final stage!

This Sunday however remains a lower hurdle than France; match 39. And in preparing for Italy we must reflect on Romania and wonder; are we in line to tackle France, Argentina or New Zealand? I was at Los Pumas v All Blacks in Wembley which was full of clever defensive systems and outrageous and subtle offloads; more anon.

In the meantime; which Italy will turn up in the Olympic Stadium? The one that battled France or the one that should have fallen to Canada.

Or the one we haven’t seen thus far; Sergio Parisse’s Italy. His team- mates have barely seen him either as he parachutes in from Paris.

Undoubtedly he’ll spike their performance but how ‘world class’ he himself can be with no rugby is naturally in doubt.

In this year’s Six Nations Scotland finished bottom of the table with no wins, six tries and zero points. Italy came in ahead with one win, 8 tries and two points. Have Italy kept pace with Scotland since? In Rome, on February 7th I sat but ten feet from Jacques Brunel. He looked lost with almost no flow of communication to his players. Vern Cotter, with better assets, has impacted hugely on his Scottish team.

Improved immeasurably

Having beaten Italy 26-3 eight months ago, Ireland’s Test team has improved immeasurably. Or measurably in the sense that Keith Earls is back and on fire. Simon Zebo looks like he’s gained the confidence of both his coach and his team-mates.

Last Sunday all Irish players looked on Zebo’s wavelength. This has not always been the case where subtle passes off quick feet hit green grass or drifted into touch as a team -mate misread Zebo’s intentions. Whose fault is this? His big right hander for Earls’ try was beautiful but two greater things occurred.

Firstly his ball-carrying was more assured where in entering heavy traffic, should the pass option be shut off, he took contact on better terms; firstly by laterally challenging the defender and secondly by dominating the weak shoulder – getting his body into better position should he hit the deck. This created a better picture for his support runner and hence better breakdown recycle outcome.

Secondly, his team-mates were more in tune with his potential. It’s pointless playing eyes up rugby if your 14 team-mates are not! English winger Johnny May ran a ball from his own line with three Welsh men bearing down on him; crazy! But all the while he had the phenomenal Mike Brown yards away. May knew what he was up to and that Brown would support accordingly. He did and England escaped into the Welsh half. It has taken time for Ireland to keep up with Zebo and we’ll need his X-factor not on Sunday but later.

Johnny Sexton missed Rome and is back at ten; so too Cian Healy.

Then there's the Iain Henderson factor and a much stronger backrow; ditto the bench. So the outcome is not in question. Having dissected Italy's games against France and Canada I can identify weaknesses all over. That's not to say it won't be a competitive challenge because it will; but in the end it won't.

French loosehead Eddy Ben Arous was able to destabilise legendary Italian tighthead’s Martin Castrogiovanni right arm in getting under his chest and popping him up for a well-earned scrum penalty. This was in the fourth minute. There were four (to one) penalties conceded to France after 5.5 minutes; there was a lack of engagement at the breakdown. Then the Italians sent three fliers up to block down the exit kick from inside the French 22. Important?

Lateral pass

Yes; three Italians may block the kick but one lateral pass will put the ball and an Irish player into acres of space; try time or as Canadian flyer DTH Van Der Merwe found to Italy’s cost any time. There is some degree of organisation and ability off first phase but as the game drifts beyond that, Italy become vulnerable around number 13.

The world's press have been harping on about centre play but Tommaso Benvenuti at 13 was terrible in defending fullback Mat Evans' 43rd minute try. Italian inside backs matched well off the Canadian flowing lineout move with Benvenuti getting slightly ahead of his inside centre. He initially fixed on Canadian blindside wing Philip MacKenzie, marshalled the pass to his fullback. All he had to do was slide and make his hit. He slid but missed! With many world 13s struggling with this defence it's a wonder why many criticise our Jared Payne who looks so comfortable in this area.

Italian scrumhalf Edoardo Gori did test the Canadian fringe but I fancy Ireland will not leak as easily.

Joshua Furno will get high into the Irish lineout and warrants a high trajectory throw from Rory Best et al.

Clearly the Irish counterattack is a key area, so too offloads but no doubt an Irish tactic for France will be to utilise a core Irish strength, the lineout maul. Against Romania Ireland tested this tool and the first four times Romania battered them backwards gaining a turnover penalty and a scrum. Eventually as Romania fatigued a tail of the Irish lineout provided a try. This return needs to improve on Sunday. liamtoland@yahoo.com