Leinster v Northampton

Are the mercurial ones about to deliver? Largely out of sight but not out of mind, they made a huge statement last weekend in Northampton, and while a double whammy over the holders will be doubly difficult, it would be their biggest statement yet. Though Leinster have under-achieved in the past, it has rarely been a question of talent, more one of mentality. And sometimes, a tough, sleeves-rolled-up win can be more beneficial to the mental development of a team than a stylish, handsome victory.

Thus, whereas winning in Leicester last season was a significant breakthrough, Leinster weren't under anything like the same pressure as they were exposed to last week.

"That was the deepest I've ever seen the boys with the golden heart on their jerseys dig in my time here," reflected Matt Williams, who reckons they "went to a place they hadn't been before". And he didn't mean Franklin's Garden.

Theories can be dangerous with this lot, but one can only imagine it will have done wonders for their self-belief. Williams counters by saying "we haven't achieved anything yet" and "if we lose at Donnybrook it will undo all the good work in Northampton." Nevertheless, last week's gutsy win has elevated Leinster to pole position in the pool, and with back-to-back home games to come. They have given themselves a great chance of reaching the quarter-finals for the first time since the European Cup's inaugural year five seasons ago, and thus for the first time since the competition went to this four-team, six-game qualifying format.

It's significant that this has coincided with Leinster finally being able to hit upon a settled team. With a smart, innovative Australian coach who's not afraid to employ the technical expertise of Roly Meates and Willie Anderson, you'd sense - and hope - that only now will they truly start to fulfil their potential.

The basis is there, in the shape of a big, strong and competitive pack with excellent set-pieces and capable of adapting to any conditions. As is widely acknowledged, for pace and ball-skills their backs are second to none in this climate, as evidenced when the exciting Shane Horgan-Brian O'Driscoll-Denis Hickie axis got to work for their long-range try last week. But equally, their all-round defensive game has been excellent: they've yet to concede a try at Donnybrook this season.

There remains a tendancy to concede too many penalties, while the jury is still out on whether Eddie Hekenui can fill the problem number 10 position, primarily in the goal-kicking department where his seven from 15 ratio so far is short of what's required.

Mind, without Paul Grayson, Northampton are also struggling for a prolific points gatherer. And now, without Pat Lam, they lack their most potent weapon of the tail-end of last season, though Allan Bateman's return injects them with a real touch of class.

They look like the side paying most dearly for the excessive demands of the English game, but true to John Steele's word they're pretty much at full-strength.

Leinster have a decent record at home, not having lost there in the cup since the season before last, but as with the team one senses the Donnybrook experience is about to lift off in a major way. The two are inextricably linked of course, for nothing builds popular support and a new identity quite like a Euro run; witness the examples of Ulster and Munster.

That recurring blip on Scottish soil against Edinburgh apart, Leinster are actually on something of a role in this competition, having won five of their last six games. It looks like it's their time to deliver.

LEINSTER: G Dempsey; D Hickie, B O'Driscoll, S Horgan, G D'Arcy; E Hekenui, B O'Meara; R Corrigan, S Byrne, E Byrne, B Casey, M O'Kelly, E Miller, V Costello, L Toland (capt). Replacements: S Keogh, M McHugh, P McKenna, L Cullen, T Brennan, G Halpin, P Smyth.

NORTHAMPTON: I Vass; L Martin, A Bateman, M Allen, B Cohen; A Hepher, M Dawson; G Pagel, S Thompson, M Stewart, J Phillips, O Brouzet, R Hunter, G Seely, B Poutney. Replacements (from): S Brotherstone, A Newman, D Richmond, D Malone, M Tucker, S Webster, T Kirk, J Bramhall.

Referee: J Jutge (France).

Results so far: Leinster - L v Edinburgh Reivers (a) 2129; W v Biarritz (h) 35-9; W v Northampton (a) 14-8. Northampton - L v Biarritz (a) 30-37; L v Edinburgh reivers (h) 2223; L v Leinster (h) 8-14.

Leading try scorers: Leinster - Shane Horgan 2. Northampton - Vass, Hepher, Stewart, Hunter, Cohen, Rodber, Webster 1 each.

Leading points scorers: Leinster - Eddie Hekenui 18. Northampton - Paul Grayson 17.

Odds (Paddy Powers): 2/7 Leinster, 20/1 Draw, 12/5 Northampton. Handicap odds (= Northampton +10pts) 10/11 Leinster, 16/1 Draw, 10/11 Northampton.

Forecast: Leinster to win.

Two points for a win, one for a draw. The six pool winners and two best placed runners-up will qualify for the quarter-finals, ranked from 1 to 8. If clubs are equal on points in the same pool, then ranking will be based on the two matches played between the clubs concerned based on the following criteria: a) the most number of points from the two matches, b) the most tries in the two matches and c) the best points difference from the two matches.

If still unresolved, or the teams have not played each other in the pool stages, the ranking will be based on a) the number of tries scored in all pool matches, b) points difference from all pool matches, c) the club with the fewest number of players sent-off in all pool matches and d) toss of a coin. The quarter-finals will be: 1 v 8, 2 v 7, 3 v 6, 4 v 5. Quarter-finals - 26/27/28 Jan. Semi-finals - 20/21/22 April. Final - 19/20 May.