It will be tight but Kerry to shade it

Kerry and Dublin will bring a great deal of historical baggage to Cork Park today, but that'll have no bearing on the outcome of this All-Ireland quarter-final. The two teams have been inexorably linked in the past, producing some great matches, and it has long been regarded as a glamour fixture because of that rivalry.

You can feel the momentum gathering this week in terms of the atmosphere, but each match between Kerry and Dublin, be it in the National League or All-Ireland series, stands alone and has its own identity. Those who think that Kerry are going to win simply because of the fact they have shaded head-to-heads and won 32 All-Irelands are misguided.

Kerry will start as marginal favourites, but even that's questionable as they haven't really performed well in the championship yet this year. The fact that they were stretched so much by Limerick means that confidence can't be sky high.

Séamus Moynihan's absence is a huge blow and has been a central reason why Kerry have struggled so alarmingly in the championship. He showed during the league, on being released from the full-back role, that he can dominate a match. He revelled in the freedom of being out around the centre of the field and also driving the team forward.

Paddy Kelly might not be too familiar to people outside of Kerry, but he is a highly-rated young player. The management team know him well as Kelly played for the under-21 team this year and last and has been one of their best players. He has performed very well in trial matches between the under-21s and the seniors.

Last Thursday night week, he had a storming game in another trial. He is a magnificent fielder and what the management are working on is his work-rate. He has a good attitude. The fact that Darragh Ó Sé will be with him will help Kelly settle. Ó Sé gave two very composed performances against Limerick and showed great leadership.

It's a bold decision to play Kelly because there will always be a question mark about temperament, how he'll react to the big occasion. That can only be answered on the day. The return of Declan O'Sullivan at centre-half forward is an acknowledgement of his great ability but Kerry supporters will be a little bit concerned about his match fitness, following that six-week lay-off with a shoulder injury.

Dublin play the game at a very high tempo so there they're be a fast tempo to the match. O'Sullivan does an awful lot of dropping deep to get and then carry ball. A warm day will be a real test of that match-fitness and sharpness. One of the strong aspects of his game is his ability to track back and he'll need to do that against Bryan Cullen. O'Sullivan can also operate at full forward and that'll be an option.

Kerry will use two inside forwards, Colm Cooper and Mike Frank Russell, and whoever Tommy Lyons plumps for will have their work cut out. Cooper, in particular, is in superb form. He runs hard off the ball, has great vision, is unselfish and can strike with left or right foot. Dublin may opt to play an extra defender, leaving Paddy Christie inside.

The Dublin corner backs will need pace, good reading of the game, and to contest the ball physically and try and get out in front of their men. The entire Dublin defence was guilty of standing off a bit in the Roscommon match. If the Dubs hold Cooper and Mike Frank, then Kerry's scoring options are considerably reduced.

Coincidentally, Dublin have relied on their two corner forwards, Jason Sherlock and Alan Brogan. They will struggle unless Sherlock gets more help in the scoring department. Ian Robertson has been superb at full forward, a strong physical presence, a good target man who brings others into the game. He gives them an extra dimension.

Ciarán Whelan is a potential match-winner, but that'll depend on which incarnation turns up today. He can kick two magnificent points and then disappear from a game for 15 minutes. If he is consistently involved then he could inspire his team to victory.

Dara Ó Cinnéide is a very solid free-taker, an area in which the Dubs have struggled so Kerry will have a pronounced advantage in a tight game. If Dublin defend like they did against Roscommon then Kerry will run up a big score. Kerry to win but in a tight game.

In today's other match, the outcome could come down to something as simple as Westmeath's attitude. If they are content with a Leinster title then they will be in trouble, but I can't see any team of Páidí Ó Sé's falling into that trap. Derry have some fine players, notably Seán Marty Lockhart and Paddy Bradley and have made decent progress.

However, Westmeath have shown a steel in reaching this stage of the competition. The team works hard for one another, they have plenty of pace in the backs, a strong midfield and if they can assist Dessie Dolan a little better in the scoring stakes they can move on to an All-Ireland semi-final.