Croke Park factor can benefit Kerry

GAA:  I think Kerry will win but to expect them to run away with it is a misreading of the Munster championship.

Cork are extremely fit and are well capable of staying with the Kerry players. Their backs in particular in both games in Munster showed they are capable of marking tightly and making it difficult for the Kerry forwards.

Since the replay in Cork, Kerry have moved Kieran Donaghy to full forward, which has completely changed the dynamics of the attack. He provides an option for quick ball that allows Kerry cut out the excessive hand-passing and allows Colm Cooper play with more freedom.

Of course it's more difficult for Donaghy now because of the expectation that he'll repeat the Armagh performance.

He'll also be a marked man because he's a known quantity now and Derek Kavanagh won't be a pushover.

In fact, Kavanagh could do well on him because he has the size and physique as well as the jumping ability from his experience as a midfielder.

I anticipate a lot of breaking ball and it's going to be a matter of who's quickest. I'd envisage Billy Morgan pulling someone back in the Armagh Kieran McGeeney role from wing forward. Seán O'Brien would be the most likely candidate because he's good at that covering game.

The game will hinge on two areas. Full forward is one but the Darragh Ó Sé-Nicholas Murphy clash at midfield will also be vital because Donaghy's contribution depends on the service he gets from out the field. If Ó Sé and Tommy Griffin play well or if the half backs get on top then Donaghy will get the service he wants. But Murphy's form has been tremendous this year.

It won't be just about high fielding around the middle but also about who picks up the breaking ball.

Cork won that battle quite clearly in Munster. Winning it tomorrow will have a decisive impact on the game.

Graham Canty is a massive loss for Cork. When we were looking for someone down in Australia to mark Barry Hall (2003 International Rules series), Canty was the man. Hall is much bigger and stronger than Donaghy but Canty did a great job on him.

It's a double blow for Cork because in the reshuffle they're losing Kavanagh from midfield, where they'll be weaker as a result.

Mike Frank Russell's form hasn't been great but he starts tomorrow. The way the management are looking at it, whereas Darren O'Sullivan looks in better form at the moment, the fact is they're missing Bryan Sheehan's free-taking. Russell's the next best free-taker and they need him on the field for the left-hand frees - Colm Cooper can take them on the other side.

I think they also look on O'Sullivan as an impact player, who creates havoc with his pace when he comes on.

Another important factor is that Kerry are comfortable in Croke Park and tend to play well there, year in, year out - apart from that blip in 2001 against Meath. They like the venue and are very familiar with the build-up and the surroundings. You couldn't compare how they played in Killarney and Cork with the game against Armagh; they were different teams.

In contrast, Cork look uneasy in Croke Park. They looked a far better team in Cork than they did in the quarter-final when they struggled against Donegal.

But one noticeable thing about them this year is that they have a touch of steel about their play. Even when things go badly, they grind away and hang in during matches. They've got a belief from being the better team on the two previous occasions they met Kerry.

Many people feel Kerry are going to win this easily but I can't see that happening. I see it as being tight enough.

Another consideration is that I believe Armagh were overrated going into the last match. They had struggled early in the championship and ultimately their lack of pace was badly shown up, but if Kerry repeat their first-half performance from the last day, Cork will win.

The biggest problem Cork have is their overreliance on James Masters. Even against Donegal they needed scores from Ger Spillane at centre back. Spillane is a fine athlete but he's been getting forward unmarked and Eoin Brosnan will have to watch him.

But overall the loss of Canty, the extra options Donaghy gives at full forward and the Croke Park factor lead me to believe Kerry will win this.

The drawn quarter-final between Mayo and Laois has been compared to more of a challenge game than a big championship fixture: players flying all over the place and no-one getting a decent hit in. The comparison is fair because that's the way Mickey Moran and Mick O'Dwyer like to play - having players and ball moving at pace all over the pitch.

Both teams overdo the running and short passing, taking 10 passes to get from one side of the field to the other. The winning team will be the one that gets better structure into its defence and closer man-to-man marking. Too many backs on both teams are too anxious to play ball and get forward. Because of that there are too many turnovers on both sides.

The hallmark of a good defender is the ability to deny his man good possession. There was a telling example last week in that Joe Higgins seemed to be having a great game but Conor Mortimer scored four points from play.

To me that's a very poor defensive performance no matter how many attacks you're involved in.

Contrast that with his opposite number, Keith Higgins, who I think is a class defender. He wins the ball with no fuss and gets it to a team-mate. There's no going for the return pass - he just concentrates on stopping his man getting possession.

If the teams persist in the kind of football they played last week the winners, whoever they are, will have no chance in the semi-final.

I'd give Mayo the nod because they needed that game after four weeks without a game and they'll come on more from having the draw under their belts.