Contest will be won in midfield

Derry v Kerry Analysis: The mantle of expectation will sit firmly on Kerry shoulders tomorrow. Derry have acquitted themselves extremely well from humble and, probably more accurately, hugely disappointing beginnings to this season to grab a place in the All-Ireland football semi-finals.

They will, however, go into this match as underdogs, the supposition being their run has to come to an end, and will probably do so against a Kerry team that while not swamping all before them have done enough in most games.

Kerry will be fancied because of what they have achieved, a National League title and a Munster Championship, both titles targeted prior to the start of the respective campaigns. Even when they haven't performed well they have managed to find an escape route.

The first half against Dublin was a low point but they responded superbly and had plenty to spare that day in victory. Derry have been improving from game to game after a poor start when they were hammered by Tyrone in the Ulster Championship.

They have absorbed the lesson from that day and from a low point in terms of confidence have built steadily over a succession of wins. They will pose a more serious threat to Kerry than Dublin did.

Derry boast scoring forwards in Enda Muldoon and Patrick Bradley that would be a problem for any defence. The big conundrum for the Ulster side is whether they can get enough possession to unleash the twin threat.

Muldoon in particular is excellent in the air and that will pose a different problem for a Kerry full-back line that has been excellent throughout the campaign. Plenty of people queued up to ask questions of that line in the Kerry team but they have effectively answered most of those.

Tomorrow will bring an aerial contest and it'll be interesting to note how they cope. If Derry cannot win enough possession around midfield then they may have to ask Muldoon to come out and strengthen that area, something Kerry would like to see. The Derry forward won't be anywhere near as dangerous that far out the pitch.

The Kerry full-back line have demonstrated pace to get out in front of opposing forwards but if the supply comes in by air tomorrow they will have to be patient and disciplined; they cannot afford to foul and give away cheap points. If they don't win the first ball, it's not the end of the world providing they keep their shape.

Derry are likely to focus on the midfield contest and in trying to secure an edge in this sector are likely to crowd the area with players. They won't fancy taking on Darragh Ó Sé in a high-fielding contest so will look to add extra bodies to contest the breaking ball. It'll see wing backs coming forward to enter this particular dispute for ball and I believe this battle will be key to the outcome.

The Kerry management deserve credit for the way they have faced up to contentious decisions, all of which have worked out in their favour. They have rewarded form in training and gone with the player in form irrespective of reputation.

Mike Frank Russell has lost his place, a player who thrives on the big-game atmosphere and the wide open spaces of Croke Park. He hasn't been going well, was held comfortably by the Dubs and now gives way to the highly-rated Declan O'Sullivan. Many people feel the latter will do most damage closer to goal as he is a good finisher. The Kerry management still have the option of introducing Russell whenever they please.

I don't believe it is a gamble. Liam Hassett will provide a bit of strength and physical presence as he forages around midfield.

A fully fit Seán Marty Lockhart is probably the best defender in the land to try to contain Colm Cooper. The Derry player wasn't at his best against Dessie Dolan but Cooper's recent hamstring problems will be a concern for the Kingdom. His forte is his speed off the mark and the quick change of direction; not exactly recommended for someone with a weak hamstring.

The Lockhart-Cooper battle will be another key clash. I have nothing but respect for Mickey Moran, with whom I worked during our time with the Ireland squad. He's an astute manager and will have spotted several areas in which to attack Kerry. One thing Dublin did show was that Kerry can be vulnerable if forwards work hard enough to create chances.

Derry will need scores to come from more than just Muldoon and Bradley.

Their team has great mobility and will relish the open spaces of Croke Park. But they will have to sustain the tempo for 70 minutes, because Kerry tend to play their better football in the second half.

Kerry have the wider scoring base, should win more possession around the middle of the field and have the pace in defence to cope. While the aerial bombardment could cause them problems I think Kerry will deal with it and prevail after all.