When the 45-strong fleet in this weekend’s SSE Renewables Round Ireland Race gets underway, all eyes will be fixed on the delicately poised weather forecast.
Northerly winds will get the fleet off from Wicklow under spinnaker but, unlike many past editions, turning onto the south coast this year isn’t likely to result in the numerous retirements with damage to gear and people.
Prevailing south-westerlies normally mean a hammering on the first night at sea with breakages and ‘mal de mer’ getting the better of a sizeable chunk of the fleet.
But after a Covid-enforced hiatus of four years, this classic 705 nautical mile race appears set to benefit from light to medium strength offshore winds for the first day or two.
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On typical weather patterns, this would often mean a sleigh-ride northwards along the west coast for the hardier entries who made it that far; 2022 looks also set to give a fair wind albeit with lighter patches too.
And it’s the lighter patches that may see George David’s mighty Rambler 88 retain her 2016 record of just over two days as the two line honours favourites may not quite match that once unthinkable time.
Such is the pace of technological change.
After all, it was the legendary Denis Doyle of Moonduster fame who set a record of 88 hours 15 minutes in the 1984 race, a time that only gradually whittled down in the decades since.
A new course record of even faster speeds is conceivable, most probably by a foil-assisted boat though strictly monohull as this race is primarily for single-hulled boats though not this year.
But for 2022, the battle for ‘line honours’ is likely to see a rematch of the 2008-09 Volvo Ocean Race between 70-footers Green Dragon (Enda O’Coineen/Conor Ferguson) and Telefonica Black (Lance Shepherd), the fastest boats in this year’s line-up at Wicklow.
However, as always this is a race decided by the IRC rating measurements used as a handicapping system. This David and Goliath approach plus a forecast that could see the smaller entries gain better breeze later in the race when the bigger boats have finished could gain them an edge.
The 2018 overall winner was Niall Dowling on his chartered 43-foot Baraka GP. Although not sailing this year, the nearest likely equivalent entry is Royal Ocean Racing Club Commodore James Neville on InoXXX.
But there are smaller boats still who will gain an edge if this weather scenario holds true and Paul O’Higgins Rockabill VI clearly comes into the frame with a strong pedigree, both inshore and offshore.
And so too does Round Ireland veteran Cavatina, Ian Hickey’s 1978 Granada 38-footer that is already a double overall winner seeking a hat-trick once more.
“If the big boats get far enough away in the breeze, it’ll be good for them,” said Nigel Biggs, co-skipper with David Cullen on Checkmate XX.
“As always in this race, whilst everyone is sailing the same course, both ends of the fleet will soon find themselves sailing in different weather conditions. It will be interesting to see which proves to be more favourable.”
