How Dublin is struggling to cope with the challenges of its success

More than 40 per cent of the State’s population lives in the Greater Dublin Area and pressure on the capital’s housing, transport and water supply infrastructure is fast approaching breaking point. People want to live and work in the city but chronic housing shortages make the former an impossible dream for many and patchy public transport makes commuting from distance an unattractive option, to say the least.

It may be a case of Dublin being a victim of its own success. With 2.1 million people living in an area less than one tenth the size of the State, there is almost bound to be certain degree of congestion.

Housing remains the number one issue for businesses in Dublin, as it does for the population generally. In the most recent Dublin Chamber member survey 62 per cent of Dublin businesses said they have either lost employees or had prospective employees decline a job offer due to poor availability of affordable housing.

“We know that housing is a perennial issue for people in Dublin but it has now got to a stage where it is affecting businesses’ ability to attract and retain talent,” says Dublin Chamber head of public affairs Stephen Browne. “Our survey also found that 30 per cent of businesses have subsidised or provided accommodation for employees. This is not something employers really want to do but they may not have a choice.”

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The planning system isn’t helping. “The current regulations are based on a National Planning Framework which relies on the 2016 census,” says Browne. “That didn’t take into account the very significant growth we’ve had since then. We know they are revising growth estimates for the next National Planning Framework due in the autumn, but that will be out of date by the time it comes out. Already, the more populous areas of the commuter belt in north Wicklow, Meath and Kildare have reached their ceilings for new housing developments under the current framework.”

Browne describes the current planning system as “slow and clunky”. “The Planning and Development Bill going through the Oireachtas will help but a lot of administrative bottlenecks need to be ironed out as well,” he says. “An Bord Pleanála, or whatever it will be called, needs additional resources, for example.”

Dublin Chamber has recommended the use of existing brownfield sites already connected to utilities and services to provide high density housing in and around the city. Dr William Hynes, managing director of KPMG Future Analytics, agrees.

“Maximising the use of existing brownfield sites is key in the short term,” he says. “It’s quicker and helps create density and critical mass for transport, retail, leisure and all the other components of a liveable city. The principles are embedded in the most recent 2024 Sustainable Development Guidelines; however, all the evidence shows it works best in consultation with stakeholders, including impacted communities.”

Public transport is a key issue for people living and working in Dublin. Even where services do exist, poor reliability can act as a barrier to use. UCD assistant professor Heletjé van Staden is working with colleagues in the university’s engineering department on a Science Foundation Ireland-funded project to improve the reliability of and resource allocation to public transport in Dublin.

She explains that the project began life when a colleague who had recently arrived in Ireland encountered persistent public transport reliability problems.

“If people are used to low reliability and poor accuracy of real time passenger information, they will use a private car if they have access to one. That increases congestion and creates a vicious circle. Those without private cars get left behind,” says van Staden.

The research team is working on technology solutions to the issue, she says: “We want to enhance operational readiness to address foreseeable and unforeseeable disruptions. We want to provide tools to support better decisions and we want to enable more accurate real time predictions even in abnormal traffic conditions.”

We need to place more value on people living in the city, as it is people who are effectively the oxygen that sustains our capital

—  Dr William Hynes, KPMG Future Analytics

Use of GPS data and smart technologies can also facilitate a move from current static timetabling to more dynamic models. “Traffic varies from day to day and dynamic timetables for each day can help people plan better,” van Staden says. “It would allow people to make choices based on accurate information.”

Hynes also highlights the need for better public transport solutions: “We need to place more emphasis on getting people into, around and across the city by public transport. MetroLink, for example, is fundamental to connectivity, not just to the airport but to transport integration and linkages to other hubs, Swords, DCU and so forth.

“We also need to place more value on people living in the city, as it is people who are effectively the oxygen that sustains our capital – whether it’s retail, cultural, leisure, educational or business.”

He believes we shouldn’t accept a poor urban living experience. “However, we do need to focus on evidence-based policies that show that if, for example, you allow urban sprawl, you will end up with congestion. On the other hand, if you provide efficient, affordable public transport solutions, then people will use them based on also achieving critical mass via residential-based mixed-use development.”

However, solving the housing crisis will be critically dependent on the availability of a water supply and that is under severe threat. Water demand in the region has increased by the equivalent of 120,000 homes over the past year. The Greater Dublin Area consumes 628 million litres of water every day, 13 million more than its design capacity.

“In eight years’ time Dublin will run out of water,” Browne warns. “The proposed Shannon to Dublin water pipeline is years off. The abstraction legislation has been signed into law and all that remains is a statutory instrument to be signed by the minister. It is sitting on the minister’s desk and is unlikely to be deal with until after the local and European elections. This is another existential issue for Dublin, another blocker to growth.”

And to those who say the solution lies in preventing further growth he says: “The problem is that if you stifle Dublin’s growth it will not necessarily go to other parts of the country – it will go to other cities like Manchester, London and Lisbon that have invested in infrastructure.”