Stakes are high as Boris Johnson once again puts himself first

The British threats to tear up the Brexit protocol have demonstrated once again that leading members of the Conservative Party put a higher priority on their own political careers than they do on the welfare of Northern Ireland, or the welfare of the British people, come to that.

The fact that Boris Johnson appears willing to renege on the international agreement he himself negotiated, and then went on to win a general election on the basis that he had got Brexit done, shows a breathtaking level of dishonesty.

Johnson’s willingness to break his word is hardly a great surprise, given his political and personal record, but the casualness with which he appears prepared to risk his country’s economic welfare, not to mention its reputation, is stunning.

The level of distrust, not to say contempt, felt for Johnson by the leaders of key EU countries cannot be overstated

Johnson has sought to create the impression that he did not know what he was doing when he agreed the protocol in the first place but this notion does not bear scrutiny.

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Dr Andrew McCormick, a Stormont official who played a central role as the UK Government negotiated the Brexit deal, recently wrote that full responsibility for the agreement lay “fairly and squarely” with Johnson and his ministers who knew exactly what they were signing up to.

The internal party politics behind Johnson’s move are that he is seeking to bolster his leadership by appealing to the right-wing Brexiteers who were his support base when he ousted Theresa May. Foreign secretary Liz Truss is engaged in the same manoeuvre to boost her claims in the succession stakes.

Brinkmanship

The timing of the return to Brexit brinkmanship is clearly calculated on the basis that the European Union has its hands full with the war in Ukraine and won’t have the time or the energy to engage in a full-blown dispute with the UK over the Northern Ireland protocol.

All the indications are, though, that the opposite is the case and that the EU, far from accepting the setting aside of the protocol as simply another phase in a seemingly endless process will do whatever it takes to protect the integrity of the single market. In the longer term, that could lead to the setting aside of the entire Brexit trade deal and the consequences for the UK and both parts of Ireland will be profound.

That is unlikely to happen in the short term but it may be hard to avoid if the protocol is unilaterally set aside. “The British are threatening to put a gun on the table and if they do the EU will have to do the same,” said one official.

The level of distrust, not to say contempt, felt for Johnson by the leaders of key EU countries cannot be overstated. During the week the mild mannered German chancellor Olaf Scholz ruled out a renegotiation of the protocol and issued a clear warning saying that no one should “unilaterally override, break or in any other way circumvent our deal.” Belgian prime minister Alexander De Croo was equally direct saying. “Don’t touch this, this is something we agreed on.”

Taoiseach Micheál Martin set out his concerns about unilateral action in a telephone conversation with Johnson during the week. He pointed out that the EU had engaged constructively in the protocol discussions, had addressed the issue of medicines and put forward a substantial package of flexibilities and mitigations for customs arrangements.

EUCommission vice president Maros Sefcovic made the same point yesterday in a meeting with Truss saying that the EU had made a series of wide-ranging and impactful solutions based on intensive engagement with all representatives in Northern Ireland. “Unilateral action, effectively disapplying an international agreement such as the protocol, is simply not acceptable,” he said in a statement.

Difficulty

While there is an acceptance on the EU side that aspects of the protocol rules may still cause difficulty and need further refining there is deep anger at Truss’s claim that no effort has been made to deal with the concerns expressed by people on the ground in Northern Ireland.

A new argument from the British in recent weeks is that the protocol threatens the Belfast Agreement. The refusal of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) to enter a powersharing Executive in Northern Ireland as long as the protocol remains in its present form is cited as evidence that it is undermining the agreement.

However, the other side of the coin is that a clear majority of MLAs elected to the new Assembly actually support the protocol and believe it can work to the benefit of the North in the longer term. This is in line with the fact that a majority of people in the region voted to remain in the EU back in 2016.

There are suspicions on the EU side that the real motivation behind the determination of Johnson’s government to ditch the protocol is the fear that over time it will become evident that Northern Ireland is able to have the best of both worlds through its access to the EU single market. If that turns out to be the case it would undermine the entire Brexit argument and that is something Johnson and his supporters cannot contemplate.