Phoney war will run its course

A phoney war has broken out between Fianna Fáil and the Progressive Democrats as the parties seek to reposition themselves with…

A phoney war has broken out between Fianna Fáil and the Progressive Democrats as the parties seek to reposition themselves with the electorate.

The knee-jerk reaction of concerned Fianna Fáil backbenchers - to blame the PDs for their loss of public support in the local elections - was met by demands from their junior partners for them to stop whingeing and to implement the policies contained in the programme for government. It is all perfectly predictable, down to the well-honed speech by Mr Michael McDowell, speaking as president of the PDs, last night. When the dust settles, the parties are likely to settle back into their conservative coalition arrangement.

These events follow a particular pattern. Rumblings of anger and dissent from Fianna Fáil at various political levels; rejection and anger from the PDs; and catharsis, as the parties resolve, or park, their differences. The process is more volatile than usual on this occasion because of the pending Cabinet reshuffle, the absorption of the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, in Ireland's presidency of the European Union, and uncertainty about his future in Irish politics.

During the past 12 months, Mr Ahern has allowed speculation to grow about a Cabinet reshuffle. Once it became clear that Fianna Fáil was going to lose local authority seats because of its broken election promises, the Taoiseach signalled there would be a major reshuffle of ministers in order to revitalise the party. But there was no suggestion of a change in the Government's economic policy. Traditionally, the prospect of a reshuffle encourages discipline within the parliamentary party as ministers under threat and would-be Cabinet members offer allegiance to their leader. The Cabinet changes were to have occurred in June but now they have been deferred until September or, maybe, October.

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Uncertainty within Fianna Fáil over whether Mr Ahern may be tempted to take the job of EU Commission president has contributed to the unrest. His departure, along with that of another senior minister as Irish commissioner, would create a huge knock-on effect in terms of political alliances and promotional opportunities. The Minister for Foreign Affairs, Mr Cowen, offered stability and continuity by saying he could do business with the Progressive Democrats. But when Communications Minister, Mr Dermot Ahern, advocated social protection policies and rejected neo-liberalism, it was regarded as an attack on the PDs, rather than a response to the political advances being made by Sinn Féin. Threatening words from the Tánaiste, Ms Harney, led the Communications Minister to explain that he had delivered the self-same speech in September, 2001.

These shenanigans do not threaten the Government. It is a case of "back to the future" as Fianna Fáil woos the electorate and the economy improves. Having slashed government spending and introduced stealth taxes to balance the books, ministers are dusting off old election promises and hoping the voters have short memories.