The National Economic Dialogue, part of the build up to the budget, is ostensibly a forum to sit back and consider the economic options. There is some discussion and, insofar as this promotes understanding, it is welcome. However, the event. held yesterday, is primarily a showcase for the Government to set out its pre-budget stall and for various interest groups to do likewise.
It is, in truth, a strange kind of half-way house. Initiated in more difficult times, in 2015, it was designed to replace the old social partnership model and give an outlet to representative groups such as trade unions, business, community and voluntary sectors and academia to discuss annual budget priorities with the government. Whether some elements of partnership might in time be revived is an interesting question.
The dialogue it is not a forum for negotiation. Nor is it a conference considering Ireland’s long-term future. While the Department of Finance inevitably sets the theme around the longer-term outlook for the public finances, the interest groups see it primarily as a way to make their case for budget largesse.
Ministers hint at their budget intentions. This year there was much talk of helping those facing cost-of-living pressures, reducing childcare costs and cutting taxes. All this may feed into public sector pay talks, with the trade unions appearing willing to look at considerations beyond pay.
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While all sides nod to to the longer term considerations of maintaining solid public finances, the dialogue is primarily an exercise in looking at how the pie will be divided. There is limited discussion of the budgetary implications of an ageing population and climate change. Everyone bets on buoyant taxes continuing to pay the bills.
In an increasingly shouty political environment, where traditional interest groups – many seen to be insiders to the political process – are under pressure, it is perhaps inevitable that the dialogue is more sound than substance. And that it underlines the difficult decisions that lie ahead for the Government as it frames the budget.
