Gaza’s embattled citizens know well not to take Israeli threats lightly. And so, from early yesterday, thousands were already on the move by car, on foot, in carts from temporary “homes” in eastern Rafah to an Israeli-designated “expanded humanitarian area” after the latter’s warning that an attack on the city is imminent. The Israeli Defence Forces describe the evacuation as limited; only 100,000 of Rafah’s swollen 1.4 million population, one million of them previously displaced in the seven-month war, need to move. For now.
But where to? Back to tent cities in blitzed and flattened Khan Younis, and on the empty promise of security from Israeli bombardment, promises made and previously repeatedly disregarded at huge civilian cost.
Whether the acceptance of ceasefire terms by Hamas, announced yesterday, leads Israel to pull back remains to be seen. Strikes continued late on Monday and prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the military operation would go on. But Israel should grasp the opportunity to stop the fighting and see its hostages released.
An attack on eastern Rafah would take a dreadful toll on civilians. The UN also warns of impending famine and that an invasion could mean that an already catastrophic situation slides “deeper into the abyss”. Rafah is a key logistics base for humanitarian operations across the territory.
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Israel’s choice on Rafah is not just a military one about pressing on to the “complete elimination” of Hamas with all the likely humanitarian costs. It is also a political decision of potentially enormous consequence to any prospect of enduring post-war peace. And it would be deeply counterproductive to Israel’s strategic interests. This is the context of the ceasefire talks.
Allies like the US have been begging Netanyahu to hold back – if he does not, many will inevitably be forced by domestic pressures into discussions on sanctions and limitations on arms supplies.
In the wake of progress on ceasefire terms, many will ask whether the prime minister is prioritising the release of the hostages? Or whether he is preoccupied with placating his extremist cabinet allies? And any prospects for a post-war administration and peacekeeping alliance for Gaza involving Arab states, specifically Saudi Arabia, currently being discussed by some of the Israeli cabinet, hang in the balance.
Israel’s principal pre-war strategic priority had been to build such a regional alliance against Iran, built on a historic reconciliation with the Saudis. That was close to happening before Hamas launched its horrific strike last October. The Saudis have made it clear that an attack on Rafah will make that impossible to resuscitate.
The death toll in Gaza from the Israeli military offensive is now more than 34,500. An attack on Rafah would add tens of thousands to that grim tally. It must not happen.