The Irish Times view on the apparent death of Yevgeny Prigozhin: a convenient plane crash for Putin

Vladimir Putin spoke of “treachery” and a “stab in the back” of Russia after Yevgeny Prigozhin launched his Wagner forces on an aborted June mutiny and march on Moscow. Putin promised then that the perpetrators would be punished, though seemingly extending a lifeline deal only days later. But few thought that would be the end of the matter.

A couple of months on, there can be little surprise at Prigozhin’s reported death. If reports of his death are correct – and Putin has said they are – few will have any doubt that the Russian president was responsible for the downing of the aircraft which has also conveniently wiped out the high command of Wagner. Initially, it was reported the plane was shot down by Russian air defences, but US officials concluded it may have been intentionally caused by an explosion on board. At this stage neither Prigozhin’s death or who was responsible has been independently confirmed.

The Russian president has serious form; eliminating opponents at home and abroad is more convenient than the complicated hassle of a trial and the expense of prolonged imprisonment. Above all it inspires fear in those who might also be tempted to take him on.

Yet the assassination, if it was that, is not a sign of strength. It may temporarily consolidate Putin’s own position, but not that of the state itself, unable to manage criticism and correct failings in its dysfunctional apparatus. Putin looks increasingly isolated, dependent on a sycophantic, corrupt entourage.

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Shooting the messenger is a recipe for endless denialism and decay. It will certainly do nothing to correct the deficiencies in the Ukraine campaign to which Prigozhin pointed. It will also reinforce the growing perception of the Russian leadership’s indifference to mounting body counts.

The international community will watch with particular concern what now happens to the Wagner group operations in Africa, where it has several thousand troops in at least five countries, propping up local autocratic regimes. There are reports that several other Russian mercenary groups are already seeking to take over the operations. The vacuum will soon be filled.