There has been much discussion lately about the credit fuelled, high-octane, consumerist society in which we now live. Even the Central Bank is calling time.
How this feeding frenzy is impacting, not only the financial health, but also the mood of the electorate is possibly the key to understanding the trends underlying the latest Irish Times/TNS mrbi opinion poll findings. As our addiction to prosperity has grown, our priorities have changed. It appears that the focus of our collective consciousness has moved from political corruption to management of the economy.
We now have more to lose than we have to gain. We are affluent more than we are financially secure. Politically, we may be looking to play safe.
Quite probably this national mood shift is not a recent phenomenon, which may help to explain why allegations of corruption made against Bertie Ahern in September did not meet with a chorus of public disapproval.
The most recent Irish Times/TNS mrbi poll conducted on Monday and Tuesday this week amongst a national sample of 1,000 electors, gives the country's largest party a vote of confidence in advance of Budget 2006. Fianna Fáil attracts 40 per cent of first preference votes, the party's strongest showing since the 2002 general election, and one percentage point higher than the October poll. Mr Ahern's satisfaction rating has also increased from 53 per cent to 59 per cent, adding another positive dimension to Fianna Fáil's performance. The signs are that Fianna Fáil is not getting too excited, trying not to peak too early.
Minister for Finance Brian Cowen is talking down the possibility of a giveaway Budget, although he may find it difficult not to deliver an extremely generous Budget given the funds at his disposal.
Of course, it makes economic sense to hold something back for tougher times, but Fianna Fáil may also realise that voters are nervous about the future.
Any moves to fix a broken health service or mend a crumbling education infrastructure will be welcomed.
Any meddling with the public finances for short-term political gain will raise the hackles of voters, the media and the Opposition.
There is no denying that Fianna Fáil is a well led, well managed and well resourced political party which has overseen an economic revolution. They will prove difficult to unseat.
Fianna Fáil's partner in Government has not fared as well in this latest poll, moving one percentage point lower to 3 per cent of first preference votes and returning to the level of support registered at the beginning of 2006. The PDs' relatively lower profile in recent weeks may not have helped the party's showing in the polls, but it has not harmed Mr McDowell's satisfaction rating, up six points to 38 per cent. Which begs the question, is the weight of responsibility making Mr McDowell less radical and the PDs more redundant? Regardless, voter appeal is only one barometer of likely success in the next general election. How important the PDs are to Fianna Fáil is the other critical success factor.
Providing the PDs remain committed to protecting the Government's right flank by pressing ahead with their agenda for reform, their strategic importance will ensure they continue to punch above their weight. That said, Mr McDowell and Ms Harney must be concerned about the lack of any immediate electoral dividend coming from their investment in healthcare reform.
Fine Gael will take some encouragement from the latest poll which shows a one percentage point increase to 27 per cent. What this latest poll rating tells us, or does not tell us, about the direction in which the Fine Gael vote is going is probably more relevant than a single percentage point increase.
After dropping two percentage points in party support in October, a second successive drop in November may have led some commentators to conclude a downward trend had emerged.
Instead, Fine Gael has registered its second highest poll rating since the last election, consolidating gains made over the past three years.
The news is less encouraging for Fine Gael when we consider the coalition preference results. When presented with two coalition options, fewer respondents were undecided when compared to the October poll. It would seem that voters are firming up on their opinions, even with the 2007 election some way off yet. Under these circumstances, we would expect both Fianna Fáil/PD and Fine Gael/Labour/Green coalition options to register higher levels of preference as each option attracts its share of the undecideds. What has actually happened is voter preference for a Fine Gael/Labour/Green coalition has held steady at 31 per cent, while the Fianna Fáil/PD option has lifted to 42 per cent, up from 36 per cent in October. A solid poll outcome for Fine Gael has not bolstered support for a Fine Gael led coalition government.
At 11 per cent of first preference votes, Labour support is unchanged. In the June 1992 Irish Times/TNS mrbi poll, conducted prior to the general election, Labour was shown to enjoy the same level of support as they do today. Probably not a particularly interesting finding in itself, unless we look at how the Labour vote was distributed across the population. In June 1992, Labour's appeal peaked amongst 25 to 34-year-old voters. Today, voters in the 25-34 age cohort are less likely than the average voter to give Labour their first preference vote. Why Labour is not connecting with this critically important demographic group should give the party food for thought.
Affluence and full employment have brought their own challenges which Labour may wish to address. Many young people are under pressure to cope with the burden of success. They have money but no time. They have money but struggle to find value for money. They have money but it is not their money. They are less likely to vote but they may be more open to persuasion.
With a 46 per cent satisfaction rating, Mr Rabbitte remains the second most popular party leader.
Surprisingly, Sinn Féin has not benefited from recent media coverage of developments at Stormont. Support for Sinn Féin has drifted lower, to just 7 per cent of first preference votes. The answer may lie in the content of the Stormont coverage, which gives the impression of baby steps as opposed to giant leaps. More histrionics than history being made.
The Green Party, like Sinn Féin and the PDs, is struggling to make any significant ground, returning to 4 per cent support; familiar territory for the Green's if we look back over polls since the last election, but two percentage points lower than when measured in October.
If it is the case that the mood of the electorate has shifted, the latest poll findings provide an insight into the potential political implications of this shift. If experimentation and idealism have given way to conservativeness and pragmatism, this can only favour the status quo and the larger, more experienced political parties.
Consequently, the smaller parties will have to be single-minded and disruptive, but economically responsible, to capture the imagination of the electorate and provide the high level of reassurance voters are seeking.