Shift to the right likely to usher in period of consolidation within EU

EUROPEAN DIARY: Nobody spoke but as we queued for our newspapers in Brussels' European quarter yesterday morning, it was clear that everyone shared the same view of the day's big news.

Shuffling in procession to the counter, we stared at the pictures of Jean Marie Le Pen on the front pages, clucked disapprovingly and slowly shook our heads.

At the European Commission's daily press briefing, the same mood of ineffectual disapproval prevailed. Mr Romano Prodi's spokesman stressed that the Commission did not comment on election results in member states. But he left no doubt about the outcome Brussels is hoping for in the second round of France's presidential election on May 5th.

"France has a very important, historic role to play in the European Union and is quite rightly attached to values we all hold dear," he said.

Mr Le Pen's success in Sunday's election suggests that about one French voter in five is not quite so attached to "values we all hold dear". And opinion polls suggest that, when Dutch voters go to the polls next month, a similar proportion will be drawn to the xenophobic platform of Mr Pim Fortuyn.

Far-right parties are in government in Austria and Italy and Denmark's conservative government depends on votes from a far-right group.

Beyond the shock of Mr Le Pen's success and the prospect of a resurgent far-right throughout Europe, Sunday's election result offered cause for concern in Brussels.

More than half the voters backed candidates who are sharply critical of the EU, albeit for a variety of reasons. The prospect of Mr Jacques Chirac serving a further seven years as president, although infinitely preferable to a Le Pen victory, was not the outcome most European integrationists were hoping for.

Mr Chirac is cautious about further European integration and is unlikely to favour a radical reform of the European institutions at the Inter-Governmental Conference that will follow the Convention on the Future of Europe.

There was more bad news for Brussels on Sunday from Germany, where Mr Gerhard Schröder's Social Democrats saw its share of the vote halved in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt.

The result gave an important boost to the opposition Christian Democrats and their candidate for chancellor in September's federal election, Bavaria's Mr Edmund Stoiber. All Germany's federal elections since 1990 have been decided in the east of the country, where voters shift political allegiance more easily than in the west. Before Sunday's vote, opinion polls showed the Christian Democrats and the neo-liberal Free Democrats on course to win September's election. Their success in Saxony-Anhalt is likely to boost the conservative fortunes further.

Mr Stoiber has long been a critic of European integration and has indicated that he would shift German foreign policy towards a more sharply pro-American stance.

Mr Schröder has signalled his determination to outflank his challenger in anti-Brussels rhetoric and the chancellor's criticism of the Commission has become more strident in recent months. Mr Schröder will be in Brussels next Monday to have dinner with Mr Prodi and other members of the Commission. The meeting was originally planned for Berlin but some of Mr Prodi's colleagues balked at the prospect of travelling to the German capital to be scolded for their alleged shortcomings.

Mr Schröder claims that the Commission is biased against Germany and that commissioners do not take sufficient account of the political impact of their decisions.

The latest election results in France and Germany and the prospect of elections in the Netherlands and Sweden later this year should encourage the Commission to be more politically sensitive in the coming months.

The new mood could also influence the work of the Convention and stiffen the resolve of delegates such as the Government's representative, Mr Ray MacSharry, to resist "grandiose" plans to transform the EU.

The shift to the right in Europe is likely to usher in a period of consolidation within the EU, as Brussels seeks to explain more clearly to European citizens what the European project is all about.

Many policy-makers believe that the EU's agenda for economic integration is, with the successful launch of the euro, almost complete. But there is little appetite among member-state governments for a big push to create a coherent, common foreign and security policy.

As the Middle East burns, European politicians will wring their hands and express frustration at the EU's failure to influence events.

But with voters becoming more grumpily sceptical about Europe, few leaders will be willing to take the political risk involved in creating a truly effective European foreign policy.