Security situation may be approaching meltdown

Analysis: The escalating violence in Iraq poses a serious challenge to the US, writes Tom Clonan

Up to now, armed resistance to the occupation of Iraq has been conducted in the main by Sunni Muslims, including elements of al-Qaeda and former members of the deposed Baathist regime. That situation has changed dramatically in the last two days.

Clashes between US-led coalition troops and Shia militia have resulted in the deaths of at least seven US troops and dozens of Iraqi militia and civilians.

These confrontations represent a serious escalation in tensions between the US occupying forces in Iraq and radical elements of the Shia Muslim community. They also pose a serious threat to the credibility of the fledgling Iraqi Governing Council (IGC) in the run-up to the planned transition to democracy within Iraq.

Shia militia loyal to radical cleric Moqtada al-Sadr have targeted coalition troops and members of the Iraqi Civil Defence Corps in a series of co-ordinated attacks in Najaf, Baghdad and Basra in response to the arrest of one of al-Sadr's closest aides, Mustapha Yacoubi. In these incidents, members of al-Sadr's "Mehdi" militia have seized Iraqi police stations and IGC offices in previously quiescent Shia areas. These seizures, including the occupation of the IGC governor's office in Basra, represent a direct challenge to the authority of the US administrator of Iraq, Mr Paul Bremer, and moderate Sunni, Shia and Kurdish elements of the IGC.

Named after the Shia prophet al-Mehdi, the "awaited one" - a messianic figure in Shia culture - the Mehdi militia have co-ordinated their attacks alongside public exhortations from Moqtada al-Sadr aimed at mobilising support from the Shia population for a widespread uprising against the US occupation of Iraq. In doing so, al-Sadr is acting in defiance of more moderate and senior Shia leaders such as Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, who appear to support America's plan for the democratisation of Iraq.

Ayatollah al-Sistani is a senior figure within the Shia "Hawza" (hierarchy of power), wielding considerable influence over the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq and its militia, the Badr brigade. If al-Sadr's Mehdi militia can persuade members of the Badr brigade to defect en masse, the scene would be set within Iraq for a full-scale guerrilla war which the Americans would not be able to contain at current military strength.

In seeking to usurp the power of Ayatollah al-Sistani and in confronting the US military, al-Sadr's Mehdi militia represents the most serious threat yet to the internal security of occupied Iraq. Representing over 60 per cent of the population of Iraq, the Shia population, if engaged in open revolt, would seriously test the mettle of US and British occupation forces. US military planners will be mindful of the closest parallel to such a situation - the experience of the Israeli military in Lebanon.

In Lebanon, the Shia equivalent of Sadr's Mehdi army, Hizbullah, perfected tactics which effectively led to the defeat of the Israeli army and its surrogates in the field. As a result of Hizbullah's guerrilla tactics, the Israelis were eventually forced to withdraw from Lebanon despite a combination of air and ground superiority similar to that currently enjoyed by the US in Iraq. Current attempts by the US 1st Armoured Division to target Mehdi forces in the teeming slums of Al-Showla and Sadr City in Baghdad - where upwards of three million Shia Muslims live - are reminiscent of Israeli attempts to target Islamic resistance groups in Beirut in the 1980s and in Gaza and the West Bank more recently.

The use of US Apache attack helicopters armed with air-to-ground Hellfire missiles and rapid-fire guns in densely-populated suburban areas like Sadr City will inevitably result in civilian casualties. These weapons may well silence Shia resistance in the short term. However, such a massive and indiscriminate show of force will surely galvanise popular support for Moqtada al-Sadr's radical cause.

All of this comes at a time when soldiers of the US 1st Marine Expeditionary Force have surrounded Fallujah in "Operation Vigilant Resolve" in an attempt to destroy resistance groups operating in the now infamous "Sunni Triangle".

As the deadline for the transition to democracy approaches, and as power struggles within Iraq intensify, the security situation in the country may be approaching meltdown. The challenge for the US military will be to contain the threats to democracy posed by both Sunni and Shia elements without further alienating the general population. Failure to do so will result in anarchy and eventual withdrawal in disarray from Iraq.

Dr Tom Clonan is a retired Army officer. He currently lectures in the School of Media at the DIT