When Harry met Joan: Burton tells voters Coalition or ‘chaos’

It had not been a great week for Joan Burton. The polls were indifferent as was her performance in the RTÉ leaders debate. In her own constituency of Dublin West there is still no certainty that she will survive.

The record of Labour leaders in their personal fiefdoms has not been great. Frank Cluskey lost his seat and the leadership. Dick Spring lost out in Kerry North in 2002, but after he had retired as leader.

The last two holders of the office of Tánaiste – Michael McDowell and Mary Coughlan – were both unceremoniously dumped by the electorate.

On Thursday morning Joan Burton attended a hurriedly arranged Cabinet meeting to discuss the issue of Brexit. Immediately afterwards, she and her campaign team drove to Galway.

Did she give any thought to the notion that it might have been her last Cabinet meeting ever, or that she was facing into her last week as Labour leader?

If she held such concerns, she betrayed none of them during a five-hour visit to Galway West; and Galway East. If Labour wants to retain its (unstated) magic number of 15 seats to remain in Coalition, Derek Nolan will have to survive in Galway West. If Lorraine Higgins somehow pulls off a shock victory in Galway East, Labour people will be buoyant.

Distinctive

Burton is as sunny as the day. She cuts a distinctive figure, tall and imposing, wearing vivid red. Like other leaders she tends to visit the wells with the deepest water as far as party support is concerned. That means a lot of creches and schools. Her first stop today is the Galway Technology Institute. There is a big emphasis on the likes of fashion, art, media and technology with some great success stories.

Burton’s campaign is less tightly controlled than some of the other party leaders. She leaves the institute and walks into the centre of the city. She is a good one-to-one operator, possibly better than her rivals. She engages warmly with people she meets, even those who are critical or hostile. The way she deals with the street critics is with an extremely long monologue that explains the issue in detail (and about half a dozen other issues as well). In debate terms, it is besting your opponent by attrition. At the end there is always a long smile – a slightly rictus one that signals simply and conclusively that this conversation is over.

There’s a quick detour into the Claddagh jewellery shop, owned by a local Labour councillor Niall McNelis. He shows Burton a Claddagh Ring he has designed for same-sex marriages, with tiny rainbow flags embossed on either side.

It is then into the dimly lit performance space of the Druid Theatre on Chapel Lane.

Burton has some strong qualities as a leader. She has an incredible back story: adopted; brought up by a working-class family in Stoneybatter; a bright academic record; some years working with an aid agency abroad. She also has a surfeit of energy, drive and has always been very strategic in her political choices. She is strong, stubborn and sometimes single-minded, incredibly so.

Her weaknesses include exasperating procrastination when it comes making tough decisions. Concision is not a strong point, which has cost her in the two televised debates where she spent too long making her points and on messy bickering matches with opponents.

When she was elected leader, she and her team changed tack in presenting the party. No longer was it the mudguard claiming it had limited out-and-out Toryism from Fine Gael. It began to muscle in and claim equal credit for some of the big economic wins. It worked to a certain extent but not enough to overcome the cynicism of former supporters.

For the election the party has honed in on that big message, economic stability of the Coalition versus the “chaos” of others. The unique Labour messages are unmistakably liberal, based around same-sex marriage, LGBT rights and abortion. Public services are also key Labour Party messages – public servants are its most vital target group.

The Spring Tide and the Gilmore Gale were outliers. Normal for Labour throughout the past century has been 10 per cent or 11 per cent. If it reaches that next Friday it will be a victory of sorts.

National profile

Nolan is tall and red-headed and has built a national profile on the back of competence in debates on finance. He succeeded Michael D Higgins and would expect to harness a lot of that liberal vote the President had harvested in the city.

A year ago Nolan’s prospects looked dead in the water, but he is chipper about his chances now. Labour strategists have always argued that there would be a very late swing to the party. He says the mood has changed, people are back working and consuming, and the reception has been good.

When you ask him abut his prospects, you sense it is still going to a struggle for him: “To be very honest, I can tell it’s not going badly. But there is a real sense on the doors that people are still deciding.

“My gut instinct is I am battling it out with Sinn Féin [Trevor O Clochartaigh] for the final seat.”

Others would look less benignly on his chances, saying Independent Catherine Connolly may scupper his bid. If Nolan’s seat is marginal, Higgins in Galway East is, on the face of it, a no hoper. Labour squeezed through in 2011. The constituency has since lost one of its four seats. Higgins has gathered her large team of volunteers to meet Burton in the Hungry Bookworm, a restaurant-cum-bookshop on a quiet side street in Loughrea.

Tough time

Higgins must be having a tough time on the doors?

“It’s very positive,” she says. “I am always honest. All my canvassers here today. You can ask each of them individually.

“I don’t think I can top the poll. I don’t know if I can take the second seats. But the third seat is definitely up for grabs.”

That positivity rubs off on Burton. She sits in front of the bookshop’s “romance” section for the short interview. It prompts a corny question: is she still feeling the love?

“I suppose I am really. Elements of the campaign have been very tough. Most of it has been very enjoyable and very interesting. I think we are at an interesting point at the moment.

“People are moving to look at their decisions. There are a lot of people in the middle who are undecided. You get the sense there has not been a lot of anger in the campaign. There has been a lot of strategic thinking. What do I do that does best for my family and community? People are saying they would like to see Government re-elected but with reservations.”

And that’s the rub, could those reservations be defined as the Labour Party full stop?

Burton runs through a list of achievements and also of the tougher, more unpalatable decisions that have been taken. She accepts that housing and health remain not fully addressed but adds: “The last five years have been very turbulent but have been quite transformative.”

The party has based its thinking on the belief a swing will come towards the Government parties very late, as happened with Fianna Fáil in 2007. That has required patience and nerve. One of its strategists said it is like when you skydive out of a plane and count out a certain number of seconds before opening your parachute.

But what happens if the parachute doesn’t open this time? Burton won’t even go there.

“I think there is a fault line between me who looks for hope and optimism as opposed to people in Opposition parties who paint everything in as gloomy dark and impossible light as they can.

“This campaign has been very difficult but I believe in hope and optimism,” she says, flashing that smile that signals the conversation is now officially and fully over.