Time for FG and FF to decide on government has arrived

Negotiations between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael on an agreement between the two parties which would facilitate the establishment of a minority Fine Gael-led government this week are deadlocked.

The good news is that we will know soon whether the impasse is surmountable.

The time for negotiating is nearly over; the time for decisions is here.

With the Dáil due to meet tomorrow, both sides know that the long dance of government formation is coming to an end: either they can cut a deal, or they can't. Most people around Leinster House figure that the process can't trundle into another week.

The prevailing mood is that a deal can be done.

This seems to be as much based on hope as analysis, though. The reality is that although the negotiating teams remain on standby to re-enter talks this afternoon, the parties are still stuck on the future of water charges in the current Dáil.

Fianna Fáil is opposed to the reintroduction of charges even after a commission on the future of Irish Water reports.

Fine Gael says it has conceded a temporary suspension of the charges, but will not give up on the principle of charging for water, or that of a national utility.

So the possible re-introduction of charges - after their suspension, after a commission - that’s the distance that separates the sides.

That gap is not as large as it was last week, but it is still wide enough to prevent a workable agreement.

So is it possible to bridge the gap?

Deal-making is central to the culture of politics, and politicians also have a powerful incentive to avoid the second election that would result from the failure to agree a deal on a new government.

But it requires significant movement from either side or both to make it possible.

There are naysayers in both parties. One senior Fine Gael source says there will be no deal unless Fianna Fáil concedes that it will support the charges after a commission reports.

Similarly, a senior Fianna Fáil person insists in strong terms that if the party is going to facilitate the election of a Fine Gael Taoiseach and a Fine Gael - led government, then Fianna Fáil must get something - and must get something big - from the arrangement.

And water charges is the price. “Fine Gael gets to be in government,” the source says. “What do we get?”

However, other voices within the two parties are more optimistic about a successful conclusion of the talks in the coming days.

One obvious way out, acknowledge sources on both sides, is terms of reference for the commission that are sufficiently fuzzy to allow both sides to save face and move on .

You can also expect that the commission might not be in any huge hurry to finish its work.

As one person involved observed, there’s more than one way to skin a cat.