Project Eagle analysis: Role of political considerations

With two inquiries into the sale of Project Eagle in preparation in Dublin, and others elsewhere, attention is likely to be directed over the coming weeks to the question of political influence on Nama and what role it played.

Nama told the Comptroller and Auditor General's inquiry that "political considerations" played a role in the decision to change its strategy and sell off all the Northern Ireland loans in one go, though it did not much elaborate on the nature of these considerations.

However, conversations with people familiar with Nama's operations suggest these political considerations weighed heavily with Nama at the time. There is a distinction between the political involvement in Dublin and in Belfast.

While there was political pressure in Dublin to hurry up and make some money, the nature of the involvement of Northern politicians is more opaque. Whatever it was, though, it seems Nama wanted to sell up, and get the hell out of there.

This is confirmed by people with knowledge of the agency's dealings. In his letter to the Minister for Finance decrying the C&AG report, Nama chairman Frank Daly pointedly reminded Michael Noonan it was operating on his instructions when it accelerated the sale of its loan book.

Daly reminded Noonan this approach was “endorsed by you” during the agency’s 2014 review, when it adopted the target of 80 per cent of senior debt (a cumulative total of €24 billion) by the end of 2016.

“As you know this ambitious target, which has not alone been achieved but exceeded some nine months ahead of schedule, could not have been attained without the sale of some large loan portfolios at market value,” Daly reminded the Minister.

This sounds a lot like: hold on, pal – this was your idea all along.

There is some truth to it. Noonan had long been of the view, even before he became Minister for Finance, that Nama needed to accelerate loan disposals, to “put a floor” on the market, to get things moving. This process necessarily required offloading properties which would subsequently rise in value. That is what happens in a rising market.

Property market

It would be a sign the strategy was successful. Clearly, Noonan approved of Nama’s strategy, even if there is no suggestion he had involvement in approving individual transactions. He was certainly grateful for the recovery in the property market.

In return, Noonan has been squarely in Nama’s camp. In a Dáil debate in June, dismissing suggestions that an inquiry was necessary, Noonan continued his “nothing to see here” approach.

“There is no specific line of inquiry that could be usefully pursued by a commission of investigation,” he said. “The appropriate investigations are already taking place in the appropriate jurisdictions. It is unwise to launch a costly commission of investigation on claims that are under investigation by the appropriate authorities.”

Noonan said all this at a time when he was aware of what was in the C&AG’s report, his department having been circulated with drafts since the beginning of the year. He remained in the Nama camp this week. But not everyone else did. It was the Taoiseach who, realising the political inevitability of an inquiry, nudged his Minister for Finance towards accepting it.

Opposition politicians are now likely to focus on Noonan’s role in encouraging Nama to accelerate its loans sales, and on his knowledge of any of the questions that arose when the sale of Project Eagle (to Pimco) was first abandoned, and then quickly resuscitated with another buyer (Cerberus).

But understanding the political influence also requires understanding the political context of the period when the decision to sell Eagle was taken. In 2013, Ireland was still in a bailout, its debt huge, its economy only starting to recover.

In the North, the political concerns veered from a worry Nama was going to engage in a fire sale of assets, to fears Nama was sitting on properties and holding back a recovery.

Cross-Border contacts

Contacts between Nama and the office of the Northern finance minister, and also the offices of the First Minister and the Deputy First Minister were regular occurrences, not always to Nama’s delight.

In this regard, the agency’s operations in the North were unique – it didn’t consult Merrion Street when selling property in Dublin, or Downing Street when selling property in London.

The reason that – as is plain from the report – Project Eagle did not proceed according to Nama’s regular procedures is that in the intersection between business and politics, as in so many other things, the North is different. Exactly how different may take several inquiries to establish.