Fianna Fáil needs to return to the middle ground after water charges shift

The Dáil chamber on Wednesday heard howls of "collusion" from the Sinn Féin benches, directed towards Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil.

Enda Kenny and Micheál Martin each spoke briefly on the outline of the business of the House, which was due to hear statements on water charges.

The night after their two parties reached an agreement on water, with Fianna Fáil extracting a heavy political price from Fine Gael to facilitate Kenny’s re-election as taoiseach, Martin was on the defensive.

“We didn’t collude in any way or form,” he protested in the face of taunts from Sinn Féin and TDs from the Anti-Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit.

Gerry Adams said Fianna Fáil had to be true to its mandate of abolishing Irish Water and water charges.

Martin argued that he and his party were making “practical efforts, real efforts” to follow through on its election promises. Others, he claimed, sat on the sidelines and refused to take part in efforts to form a government.

It showed the difficulty Fianna Fáil faces in putting Kenny back in office, and why Martin needed a significant political win to allow him do so.

Glittering prize

Martin is now on the verge of walking away with a glittering prize, politically at least - since the future of Ireland’s creaking water infrastructure is now in question.

Water charges are being suspended for nine months, with the prospect of that period being extended, while a commission examines a new charging regime. An Oireachtas committee will then examine the commission's outcome - although it will not be bound of the findings of the commission.

The Dáil - a chamber with a majority of TDs now opposed to charges - will then vote on paying for water.

Kenny will hold on to the nine month suspension as an element of victory for Fine Gael but, as fig leaves go, it is a poor one and will not survive the political gusts of wind that will blow when the suspension period ends next year.

Fine Gael’s only real win has been retaining Irish Water as a national utility.

The fudge of a commission, committee and Dáil vote means we will not be paying water charges anytime soon.

A two- to three-year timeframe will firmly kick charges into the cycles of the next general and local elections. The possibility of anyone - bar, perhaps, the Greens - running on a pro-water charges platform seems remote.

Capitulation

Some within Fine Gael will see this deal as an absolute capitulation, but it is likely Kenny will get it by his TDs. Nothing concentrates the mind like the threat of an election, as this week shows. Both parties danced up to the precipice on Monday evening and Tuesday morning before pulling back.

The focus for Fine Gael will now be on ensuring that those who paid their charges will be refunded, or else credited in future.

Those middle ground voters who supported Fine Gael will not appreciate the crowing of Paul Murphy - something that also brings danger for Fianna Fáil.

In its position on water charges, and the price it extracted for facilitating a Fine Gael led minority government, Fianna Fáil drifted from the middle ground to political terrain occupied by Sinn Féin and the hard left.

In doing so, it may have alienated some middle ground voters who tentatively began to return to Martin’s party at the recent election.

“They are not our people,” reflected one Fianna Fáil source Wednesday morning of the anti-water charges protesters.

A party source TD on Tuesday, when the very real prospect of a general election on water charges was a possibility, rightly reflected that those who vote for the hard left are not likely to vote for Fianna Fáil.

Martin now faces a challenging, medium term task to position his party back among the middle ground voters.

It is they, after all, who will decide which party leads the next government, a position Fianna Fáil covets.