Cabinet reshuffle delay damages Coalition’s credibility

The unexplained delay in announcing the Cabinet reshuffle and the Government’s priorities for the remainder of its term of office is beginning to raise questions about the Coalition’s ability to regain control of the political agenda.

The object of the exercise for both Coalition parties was to generate some momentum after the dreadful showing in the European and local elections, but already that prospect is beginning to recede as the days pass without an announcement.

No disagreement

It was widely expected the new Cabinet would be announced yesterday but instead it has been delayed until today or even tomorrow, although sources in both Fine Gael and the Labour Party insist there is no serious point of disagreement between them.

If that is the case, any further delay would be inexplicable. If there is no news today, it will indicate something has gone seriously wrong in the talks between Taoiseach Enda Kenny and newly installed Tánaiste Joan Burton.

In that case, instead of marking a turning point in the Coalition’s fortunes, the reshuffle could turn into a serious political gaffe with the capacity to undermine its credibility for good.

The explanation for yesterday’s postponement was that parliamentary commitments of the Taoiseach in the Dáil and the Tánaiste in the Seanad limited their ability to hold a detailed meeting to sign off on policy priorities and finalise the details of the reshuffle.

Burton was said to be consulting Labour colleagues about the detail of the priorities worked out with Kenny on Monday and Tuesday.

In the Dáil the Taoiseach disclosed one item from the list when he announced medical cards would in future be given to everybody over the age of 70 regardless of income. That return to the concept of a universal benefit is an obvious concession to Labour which should help to sweeten the deal for the party.

It is the only item from the new policy platform to be revealed so far and it emerged in the course of a question to the Taoiseach from Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin.

The discussions between Kenny and Burton have mainly involved just the two of them – hence the tight rein on information about their nature and scope.

The talks have generated a lot of speculation about potential changes in personnel at both Cabinet and junior ministerial level but in Leinster House yesterday there was no sign that any of the planned changes have been communicated to the people who will be directly involved.

A lot of the speculation has centred on the Department of Jobs and Enterprise, with suggestions Labour wanted to get its hands on the department run by Fine Gael’s Richard Bruton for the past three years.

The mood music suggests Fine Gael will retain control of the portfolio with some of it being hived off into a new Department of Transport, Tourism and Trade to create a new economic portfolio for a Labour minister.

Suggestions from Labour sources that the priority for the party was the social agenda outlined by the Tánaiste after her election as party leader appeared to give some credence to the speculation about the Jobs portfolio.

Certainties

A few things appear certain about the reshuffle: Phil Hogan will leave for the EU commissionership; James Reilly will move from Health to another portfolio; and Labour deputy leader Alan Kelly is a certainty for promotion from the junior ministerial ranks to the Cabinet. There will also be at least three new junior ministers, with Kilkenny TD Anne Phelan regarded as a certainty.

On the Fine Gael side most of the movement at Cabinet level is expected to involve the swapping of portfolios rather than new faces, with a number of new appointments coming at junior ministerial level.

One way or another the changes will have to be announced soon if they are not to exhaust public patience with the whole process.