With the Yes side continuing its small but steady lead, the latest opinion poll suggests they can win on Saturday - but only by a small margin - writes Ian McShane
The most significant feature of today's poll is the drop in the percentage of those undecided as to how to vote in the Nice Referendum, from 32 per cent to 19 per cent over the past three weeks.
The 13 per cent who have moved from the undecideds have split between those who will not vote (+3 per cent), will vote No (+4 per cent), and those who intend to vote Yes (+5 per cent). Rounding-up accounts for the changes adding up to only 12 percentage points.
While the Yes vote has only increased by one percentage point more than the No vote, the overall lead enjoyed by the former remains consistent.
In interpreting these movements in public opinion, a comparison with the two Irish Times/MRBI polls conducted prior to the 2001 Nice Referendum is pertinent. At that time, the proportion of undecideds remained practically static between the poll conducted three weeks before the Referendum (28 per cent), and that carried out two weeks later (27 per cent). Over the same period, the Yes vote dropped seven points, while the No vote increased by a similar margin.
In other words, a sizeable proportion of the electorate last year remained confused as to how to vote right up to polling day, with a simultaneous and significant swing towards a No vote as the campaign progressed.
The dynamics this time around are quite different. Since our last poll, the near-saturation media coverage of, and public pre-occupation with, the findings of the Flood Tribunal report has abated.
While the electorate has by no means forgiven the Government or Fianna Fáil for any perceived mis-handling of this and other issues, it can be argued that the less-emotive atmosphere of late has given voters the required breathing space to consider the Nice Treaty in a calmer, more clinical fashion. Thus, we have witnessed a consolidation in the underlying strength of the Yes vote, while at the same time levels of Government satisfaction have dropped further to a low of 33 per cent (Table A).
The Yes campaign has also moved up a gear over the past few weeks, and bears no comparison to the lacklustre efforts of 2001. The key issues of enlargement, immigration and neutrality appear to have been dealt with in a more direct manner by various spokespersons on the Yes side, while the "drafting in" of such respected figures as John Hume can only have served to bolster their arguments.
From a broader perspective, the more in-depth level of debate is reflected in the increased levels of understanding of the issues involved in the Nice Treaty. Almost two-thirds (64 per cent) of the electorate now claim to have a good or partial understanding of the issues involved in the Treaty, an increase of 11 points since the last poll. The corresponding figure one week before last year's Referendum was just 47 per cent.
Another influencing factor in terms of public opinion is likely to have been the revelations concerning No campaigner Justin Barrett's links with Neo-Nazi groupings in Europe. Presumably such associations can only have been viewed by the vast majority of the public in a negative light, even among the four in 10 of all committed No voters who will be voting as such in fear of "too much immigration to Ireland".
While the Yes campaign can therefore take some solace from today's poll findings, the result of the Referendum is by no means a foregone conclusion.
It should be noted that public opinion one week before last year's Referendum was split 45 per cent Yes, 28 per cent No and 27 per cent undecided. With a turnout of just one-third of the electorate, the No voters proved more dedicated to their cause in actually participating in the ballot. Coupled with what in my opinion was a disproportionate number of undecideds voting No in protest at a lack of information relating to the issues involved, the Referendum was lost by a margin of 54 per cent to 46 per cent.
Therefore, while I have argued that the conditions during the lead-in to the 2002 Referendum are qualitatively different to those prevailing in 2001, it is likely that the Yes campaign will, if anything, up the tempo between now and Saturday.
Specifically, the benefits of enlargement both to prospective EU member-states and to the Irish economy are likely to be accentuated even further, as they are key influencing factors among those leaning towards a Yes vote.
At the same time, an unknown proportion of those currently intending to reject the Treaty may be convinced to re-consider their position if they are presented with plausible reassurances in relation to the protection of Ireland's neutrality, and the control of immigration into the country.
In terms of targeting specific sections of the electorate with the most appropriate messages during the dying days of the campaign, strategists on both sides of the debate will note that those veering towards a No vote are significantly more likely to fall within the lower-income C2DE socio-economic grouping than any other section of the population.
In tandem with the above, all of the pro-Nice parties will need to play their part if the level of turnout, and hence the potential Yes vote, is to be maximised. The Referendum Commission's multi-media advertising campaign is likely to have a significant impact in this regard, but mobilisation of the main parties' electoral machines may also impact on the final outcome.
It is my belief that the Referendum can be won on the day, if only by a small margin.
The establishment has learned from some of the mistakes made last year, and needs to make a concerted and intense effort between now and polling day to carry it over the line. Finally, a brief overview of adjusted party support levels (Table B) indicates no statistically significant shifts since last month's poll, with the exception of Fine Gael which has dropped four points.
The party is now registering an 8 per cent core vote in the Dublin region, significantly behind Fianna Fáil and Labour, and struggling to match the support of Sinn Féin, Independents and the Green Party in the capital.
With 29 per cent of the electorate resident there, Dublin is of course pivotal to the outcome of any national election, and will be a crucial area as the party attempts to re-establish itself following the disappointment of May's General Election.
Staying with the opposition, it is interesting to see the Green Party, Sinn Féin and like-minded Independents form a technical working group in the Dáil. Given its recent woes, it might have been assumed that Sinn Féin would represent the weakest link in this new partnership from the public's perspective.
This poll shows that support for Sinn Féin, and indeed for Gerry Adams, has in fact remained solid despite allegations of the party leader's past involvement in paramilitary activities, and a raft of adverse publicity stemming from Columbia, the raids at Stormont and the Castlereagh break-in.
Sinn Féin's steady support thus indicates that voters in the Republic are attracted to the party for reasons other than Northern Ireland. As the new working group becomes established and finds a voice for itself in the corridors of power, all eyes will be on its collective levels of support, and on the individual or party which emerges as its natural leader.
Ian McShane is managing director of the Market Research Bureau of Ireland