Strong political leadership and an effective regulatory framework are required if Ireland is to tackle its greenhouse gas emissions.
Yet even if carbon emissions were stopped now, Ireland and the rest of the world would still face decades of uncertainty due to climate change, a former adviser to California governor Arnold Schwarzenegger's administration has warned.
How California has sought to deal with its greenhouse gas emissions was described in Dublin yesterday by the director of the California Climate Change Centre, Prof Michael Hanemann. His talk was organised by Comhar, the Sustainable Development Council.
An economist and professor at the University of California, Berkeley, Prof Hanemann described how a fortuitous combination of political will and a track record in environmental regulation has helped California introduce tough new laws controlling greenhouse gases. "Both of these are coming together in the climate bill that has just been passed," he told The Irish Times.
Governor Schwarzenegger took on the environment as an electoral issue prior to winning office in January 2004, using a very simple campaign message, Prof Hanemann said: "Climate change is real, the debate is over, the time for action is now."
The result was legislation which included controls on greenhouse gas emissions from transport vehicles, including cars. "The governor doesn't believe in puny steps. It took him the better part of a year to do this."
Ireland and the rest of the EU would benefit from this approach, he said. Europe tended to avoid regulation in favour of allowing taxation and the market to control emissions. "You need political leadership and a combination of regulation and some emissions trading."
He warned, however, that even if carbon emissions were slashed tomorrow, greenhouse gas-induced climate change would remain with us for at least 30 or 40 years. "There is not going to be a morning-after pill where you can make quick changes," he said.
He presented a frightening analysis of how climate change might affect California based on a detailed study overseen by academics at Berkeley and at Scripps Research Institute: Scenarios Study of Climate Change Impacts in California.
It details how precipitation rates will fall, less water will be available from a diminished snowpack in the mountains and heatwaves will become commonplace. If nothing is done to counter carbon emissions Los Angeles will become as hot as Death Valley, the hottest place in the US, he said.
"A lot of the work has focused on annual precipitation. My own view . . . is precipitation does not matter. Temperature is the critical parameter."
Ireland will have to adapt to the changing environment, said Comhar chairman Prof Frank Convery. "The countries that adapt best are going to be better off," he said.
And Ireland does not have the luxury of waiting before taking decisive action on climate change. "If you wait until 2020 it will be too late," he added.