Even if today's elections go in favour of Mugabe's opposition, will it have the power to usher in a new era of hope for Zimbabwe?
W HEN ZIMBABWEANS go to the polls today to vote for their next president and parliament, the most pertinent question is not who will win the ballot, but rather, have any of the opposition candidates got the power to unseat a man who has ruled with an iron fist since taking control in 1980.
There is no doubt that in this general election President Robert Mugabe faces his toughest electoral challenge since rising to power on a tide of liberation euphoria nearly three decades ago. The signs of discontent and decay can be found everywhere one turns.
The once picturesque and vibrant capital Harare is now a shadow of its former self. Water pours across its main thoroughfares from cracks in the paving the council cannot afford to repair; the destitute wander aimlessly as few have the resources for charity.
Supermarkets have no food, and when you go into the townships, which have no electricity or running water, you are confronted by rivers of overflowing sewage.
Stealing a look at soldiers going about their business, you see they have no rubber on the soles of their shoes. The city is slowly, painfully decaying; and its citizens, no matter which side of the political divide they fall on, are suffering a similar fate. In the rural areas, where Mugabe was most popular, a similar situation exists. Starvation is widespread because the country no longer produces enough food to feed its population.
WHEN MUGABE FIRSTcame to power, the world viewed him as an enigmatic freedom fighter who, through 15 years of guerrilla warfare, had defeated Ian Smith's racist white minority government and transformed colonial Rhodesia into post-colonial Zimbabwe.
Over the following 10 years his star continued to rise and many refused to see anything other than one of modern Africa's most progressive leaders, despite clear patterns of repression and his creation of a de facto one-party state.
However, during the 1990s his economic policies began to unravel; his decision to forcibly take land from white farmers at the end of the decade and redistribute it to blacks, although arguably just, copper-fastened the country's economic ruin.
Today, the combination of this crippled economy, along with a sizeable split in his Zanu-PF party and the continued presence of a significant opposition movement has left many observers with one conclusion: the only way Mugabe can win this election is by rigging the vote in his favour - something he was accused of doing in 2002 and 2005.
If one is to believe an independent pre-election survey by the Mass Public Opinion Institute, the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) leader Morgan Tsvangirai - Mugabe's nemesis since early 2000 - has a significant lead over the 84-year-old. Some 28.3 per cent of respondents favoured Tsvangirai as the next president, compared with 20.3 per cent who wanted Mugabe returned to power. Next came Simba Makoni, a former finance minister and Zanu-PF official who has significant support from disgruntled members of the ruling party, with 8.6 per cent of the vote, and the little-known Langton Towungana, who received 1 per cent.
In the past many opposition supporters have been afraid to reveal their political allegiances because of the threat of violence from state agents. So it can be considered more positive for the MDC that 31 per cent of those questioned were disinclined to reveal their political preferences.
The evidence on the ground during the election campaign appears to support the theory that both Tsvangirai and Makoni have far more support than Mugabe, despite his insistence that he is once again a shoo-in for the presidency. Both candidates have been drawing large crowds at their rallies throughout the country. However, Tsvangirai and the MDC appear to be the most popular, holding daily rallies attended by thousands.
IT IS NEARLYimpossible for Mugabe to revive the country's economy, as it would require massive financial input from the very Western governments he continuously blames for the country's economic plight.
According to one of Zimbabwe's leading human rights lawyers, Arnold Tsunga, the Makoni camp wants to create the impression that Zanu-PF is "sanitised" and can be trusted again. "It has all the hallmarks of a rescue operation to retain a system of patronage, albeit in a more sanitised image that is easier to accept both internationally and internally," he told The Irish Times.
Despite the signs of Mugabe's waning influence, writing off the wily old dictator would be an act of folly. The only certainty in this election is that no party or candidate can be assured of victory.
Prior to the election a bout of gerrymandering occurred and, if Mugabe has decided to try to steal this election, the means are within his grasp.
Even though Makoni has divided the ruling party and weakened his former boss's iron-like grip on it, those who remain loyal have a deep knowledge of election rigging practices and have much to lose if Mugabe falls.
Independent observers as well as both opposition parties have already accused Mugabe of putting the means to rig the election into place ahead of polling today. Tsvangirai told a news conference two weeks ago that independent investigations had revealed that 90,000 names appearing on the roll for 28 rural constituencies could not be accounted for.
"In all, the 28 rural constituencies these independent analysts have done, there are 90,000 unaccounted voters. You can imagine, with 210 constituencies, what the figure is of the people who have been identified as registered but do not exist," he lamented.
According to Tsunga: "These elections will only be free and fair if Mugabe wants them to be, but he has never participated in an election he has lost or accepted losing. So I urge people to take seriously the threats from the military that they will not accept anyone else other than Mugabe."
The rumour mill has now gone into overdrive among those who have access to the corridors of power in each camp. The MDC say they will not make the mistakes of the past. In 2002 they froze in disbelief at their loss, and, following 2005's election defeat, the legal challenge they took was defeated.
When Kenya-style protest rallies were suggested after Christmas as a possible consequence of a third election defeat, Mugabe said: "Just dare try it." All things being equal, Tsvangirai and the MDC should be the new leaders of Zimbabwe once today's votes are tallied; but the evidence and past experience suggests a free and fair election will not materialise. With that in mind there are three likely election outcomes.
In scenario one, Mugabe, true to form, steals the election and despite the split in his party has the manpower to quell any backlash that comes his way. The current regime continues, as does Zimbabwe's misery, until the old dictator dies. In scenario two, he also steals the election but is unable to face down the forces for change which make him hand over power to a coalition government. The third scenario, which many think the most likely, sees none of the candidates getting a 51 per cent majority in the first round of voting. This, according to the country's election rules, would mean a second round run-off between the two leading candidates.
But anything could happen. Until the election result is issued, Zimbabweans and the watching world will live in a vacuum: one in which the likelihood of freedom or continued oppression are equal bedfellows.