CONSTITUENCY PROFILE:THIS WAS the seat that provided the headline grabbing result in 2005. David Simpson finally toppled David Trimble – the highest ranking casualty of the DUP's assault on its chief unionist rival.
Five years later, Mr Simpson is doing the rounds again. Before the rise of the DUP or Sinn Féin, the Ulster Unionist MP here was the late Harold McCusker.
Such was his majority and dominance that his votes could have been weighed rather than individually counted.
These days, the DUP is campaigning hard to confirm its 5,300 majority – the party’s second smallest in Northern Ireland after South Antrim.
After all the hype of the Trimble battle in 2005, it’s a different campaign this time.
“We miss him,” said one canvasser, a little tongue in cheek.
The Simpson campaign has the place wallpapered with posters and his team is accompanied by a highly visible van as they knock on the doors of the candidate’s Portadown base.
“I get local issues on the doorstep,” he says. “I’ve been across two-thirds of this constituency at this stage and I can honestly say I have heard policing and justice mentioned twice. The issues on the doorsteps are the economy, young people, training, jobs.” There’s an acceptance of sorts, he says, of Sinn Féin in government, and people are now looking for the Executive to deliver. “In five years time if we’re standing here again and it hasn’t delivered then I believe questions will be asked.”
Sinn Féin, meanwhile, is quietly working its electorate, looking for another vote in another election. John O’Dowd, leader of the party’s Assembly group and a voice on many issues that is trusted by the leadership, has a more relaxed approach than his DUP rival.
He leads a canvass through his home territory of Laurencetown which is well equipped with registers marked with personal details of who lives behind what door and what their interests are.
There is a sense he would settle for a few percentage points rise in the party share of the vote against the backdrop, perhaps, of a lower turnout. But he is convinced the fundamentals in Upper Bann are changing slowly.
“Sinn Féin has potential here,” he says. “Unionism clearly believes we have because the TUV isn’t standing here. The growth of nationalism and republicanism here is quite remarkable.”
The Ulster Unionist candidate this time is Harry Hamilton, a novice candidate and professional Freddie Mercury impersonator. Take a look at his posters and you can see the likeness.
A candidate more unlike his Ulster Unionist predecessor David Trimble is hard to imagine. And given the changes in unionism since 2005, it is anyone’s guess how the Trimble vote will be passed on. The Ulster Unionists remain confident their link-up with the British Tories is playing well with an electorate attracted by the lure of a direct role in UK national politics.
Alliance is hoping it can built on its 2.2 per cent base while the Traditional Unionist Voice, which is vociferously opposed to sharing power at Stormont with Sinn Féin, is standing aside in Upper Bann to ensure the Westminster seat remains in unionist hands.
That should likely be the case, but the underlying trends will be worth watching.