Three wishes unlikely to be granted but Lions can grasp long-awaited Test series success

FROM THE BLINDSIDE:The prospects for Irish rugby don't look great but the Lions can win Down Under, writes ALAN QUINLAN

At the start of a new year, all you have is wishes and hopes. Some of them will come to pass and some of them won’t but the great thing about this time of year is that anything’s possible. Any genie worth his salt would give me three wishes, so here goes. Time will tell whether any of them work out.

1 That Ireland win the Six Nations

I was genuinely happy for the Ireland team after the November internationals. We judge them by very high standards and we’re very demanding, expecting so much success from them every year.

After what happened at the end of the New Zealand tour with the 60-point hammering, the tide was starting to turn against them. Public opinion wasn’t on their side. But the win over Argentina changed all that.

They’ve been inconsistent in the years since winning the Grand Slam and that inconsistency drives people mad. If they just weren’t up to it, if the players just weren’t good enough, that would be one thing. But we’ve seen them beat Australia, we’ve seen them beat England consistently, Wales and Argentina as well. We’ve seen how good they can be and we know that a return of just one Six Nations title doesn’t do them justice.

The tour to New Zealand last summer summed it all up in a way. One week, they’re playing with massive heart and commitment and skill and very nearly turning the All Blacks over for the first time in history. Then the next, they’re being run ragged and losing by 60 points. You can’t blame the public for getting fed up when that happens.

So ending the November series on an upbeat note was vital for the Six Nations. They go into it now with a spring in their step, with young guys putting up their hands to stake a claim. The likes of Craig Gilroy, Simon Zebo, Ian Henderson, Luke Marshall and David Kilcoyne are in the mix now, putting pressure on the established players.

There’s confidence in the group again and with the likes of Brian O’Driscoll and Rob Kearney coming back from injury that confidence will only grow.

Will It Happen?

Sadly, it doesn’t look likely. The bookies have Ireland down as third or fourth favourites behind France, England and in some cases Wales, which I think is about right. Now, a win in Wales in the first game is very possible and the confidence and momentum Ireland would take from it could carry them a long way. Lose that one though and even with England and France coming to Dublin, the Six Nations will feel a little bit like it’s over before it has even really started – Grand Slam gone, Triple Crown gone, Six Nations more than likely gone, all on the opening weekend.

So they have to win in Wales, who are bringing poor form into the championship after their games in November went very badly. That’s not out of the question for Ireland and it’s actually a great game to have up first because of the bounce they would get from winning it. But realistically, you’d have to expect either France or England to come out on top at the end.

2 That three Irish provinces make the quarter-finals of the Heineken Cup

It might take a lot more than wishing for this one to come true. When all four provinces lost on the same weekend before Christmas, it brought everybody back to earth with a thump. That’s just not something we’ve been used to in the Heineken Cup and it has done the chances of getting quarter-final places huge damage. When something like that happens, it just reduces your options.

Munster and Leinster really just have to throw caution to the wind now and go all out to get bonus-point wins in each of their last two games. It’s not impossible but they’ve left themselves with an awful lot to do. Munster could do with Racing Metro beating Saracens but you’d have to say that Saracens look to be in the driving seat and will more than likely top the group.

Leinster are playing for second place now after the two defeats to Clermont. If you wanted to pinpoint what has them in trouble, you only have to look at the tries scored column in the table. Leinster have only managed three tries in their four games, which means that the only team in the whole competition to have scored less than them is Edinburgh who have zero tries and zero points. Even allowing for how tough Leinster’s pool is – nobody else in Europe has had to play Clermont twice, after all – three tries isn’t good enough.

Will It Happen?

Realistically, I don’t think so. Ulster will surely make it through and should have a home quarter-final as well. But Munster and Leinster are in real trouble.

I’d rate Munster’s chances of making it through slightly higher than Leinster’s purely because the other teams in their pool have taken points off each other and they’ve scored more tries. They’re a little bit more in control of their own destiny than Leinster are.

But both teams need bonus point wins in their last two games, which is a huge ask.

I hope I’m wrong on this but I think we might find ourselves going into the Six Nations with only one team qualified for the quarter-finals. If that happens, there’s no doubt it could affect the mood of the camp.

I’ve seen lads come in to join up with the international set-up after one province or the other hasn’t made it through and it’s very easy for fellas to mope and be down on themselves. They don’t mean to, it’s just a consequence of them being high achievers and massively competitive individuals.

3 That the Lions finally win a Test series

Of the countries the Lions play against, Australia are definitely the lesser of the three just now. A Lions tour to South Africa or New Zealand in the summer wouldn’t fill you with a huge amount of confidence but there will be a lot of players on the plane heading south in the summer who know what it’s like to have beaten Australia.

The Aussies just don’t present the same physical challenge as either of the other two countries. They don’t have the same heft up front.

They have some great individual players and some brilliant talent behind the scrum. But the Lions will go there knowing this is the best chance of a series win that they’ve had in a long time. The 2001 series was one they left behind them and they must see this as a chance to make up for that.

There’s no real point in predicting the Lions team today because so much water has to go under the bridge between now and the summer. But it’s clear that Warren Gatland has to pick players who have a real physical presence. Think back to how Ireland dominated Australia in the World Cup, in the set-piece and around the fringes.

If Australia get on the front foot, they can be superb and they’re unbelievably dangerous. So the Lions need to pick players who will be mobile and aggressive and who will push them back continually.

Will It Happen?

This one I’m reasonably confident about. It would a bit of a disaster if the Lions didn’t win this series because it’s set up for them. If they get the balance right in the selections, if Gatland picks the likes of Johnny Sexton, Jamie Roberts, Stephen Ferris and so on, they have a great chance.

Of course, injuries will have a say in the matter between now and then but even so, it will be a huge missed opportunity if they don’t go there and win.

Australia will be well riled up by the time the Test series comes around because all the talk will be of what a great chance the Lions have of beating them. So it won’t be easy. Whatever happens earlier in the year the Lions offer the best chance for success.