Voting is over in the 2024 general election and our exit poll shows that there is little to separate between the three largest parties.
The exit poll was conducted among over 5,018 voters at more than 200 locations nationwide, as they left polling stations. It has a margin of error of 1.4 per cent.
Key Reads
- Exit Poll results: See how all parties are faring
- How The Irish Times will cover the results and key times to watch out for
- Election Daily podcast special: What do the exit poll numbers mean for government formation?
- The real takeaway from polls is that many people cannot see a better alternative or even the need for one. It would be a stretch to say they are happy with the outgoing Government, writes John McManus
Further Reading and Listening as Live Coverage winds down
Thank you for staying with The Irish Times live coverage of polling day, and the excitement of the exit poll tonight.
We will leave you with two further excellent piece of analysis. The first is tonight’s special Election Daily podcast with Hugh Linehan and Pat Leahy, which parses the results and implications of the poll.
The second is Pat’s analysis for the The Irish Times on the poll findings and how it might translate into government formation: that’s if the findings are borne out by the reality of the count.
And if that was not enough, there is also this excellent piece of analysis from John McManus on how non-eventful the election campaign was (agree) and how tedious the count will be (disagree).
Exit Poll: None of three larger parties have gained: two have made lossses
A very interesting statistic for me is that all three larger parties are either even or down compared to 2020. Fianna Fáíl at 19.5 per cent will be down almost 2.7 per cent, if the election matches the exit poll results. Sinn Féin is down 3.4 per cent compared to 2020. And Fine Gael is marginally up, from 20.9 per cent to 21 per cent.
All of those figures are subject to change once counting begins tomorrow.
A long day beckons on Saturday (and on Sunday). We will be with you ever step of the way!
Here is a sample of what we are covering tomorrow.
8am: Subscribers to our Inside Politics newsletter (you can sign-up here) will receive an election special edition newsletter with extra details from The Irish Times exit poll.
9am: Counting begins in all 43 constituencies. In the last general election in 2020, Galway East was the first constituency to report full results.
Our rolling live coverage will feature up-to-the-minute updates, analysis and reaction as tallies emerge, counts are completed and seats filled. We will also provide detailed results for each of the 43 constituencies, along with graphics showing how the country and each constituency voted.
Our politics team will provide analysis of the emerging results online, on our podcasts and via video while our columnists, including Justine McCarthy and Diarmaid Ferriter, will share their views.
Late afternoon/evening: Details of first counts should start emerging on Saturday afternoon with first seats filled later on that afternoon and into the evening. Depending on the individual returning officers, counts in some constituencies may run into early on Sunday morning.
More details on our extenisive coverage over the weekend can be found here.
Reaction on Social Media
Here is a selection of the reaction to the exit poll that has featured on social media.
Listen: What do the exit poll numbers mean for government formation?
Pat Leahy joins Hugh Linehan to share the results of The Irish Times exit poll for the 2024 general election.
EXIT POLL: Sinn Féin holds slim lead but Fine Gael and and Fianna Fáil return looks likely
Reaction from the larger parties
Senior figures from the three largest parties have been giving their reaction to the exit poll on RTÉ.
Jack Chambers of Fianna Fáil said the three parties were all within the margin of error or each other.
“I think there’s a three way race now to see who become the largest party, and we have to see how that manifests tomorrow morning when the ballot boxes are opened.”
He also cited geographical and constituency issues.
Chambers said that the wider context was a further fragmentation of Irish politics with the vote split across many small parties and independents.
Damien English of Fine Gael said his party had put in a “very solid performance” and that seemed to be borne out by the findings of the exit poll.
“Bearing in mind that we set out with 17 sitting TDs it’s a very positive solid result.”
Sinn Féin director of elections Matt Carthy said the truth was the the combined support of the two main Government parties had fallen 6 per cent on their 2020 performance.
“I think any anybody looking at the trajectory of the political discourse, particularly since last June’s local elections - when Sinn Fein’s obituary had been written - will have to acknowledge that quite an amount of people came out to vote against the outgoing government. They came out to vote for change.”
UCD Professor of Political Economy Aidan Regan points out the exit poll is more evidence of a decline in the strength of the traditional Civil War parties.
Limerick ballot box update
More from David Raleigh on the ballots in Limerick city on which candidates’ names appeared in reverse alphabetical order.
Sinn Féin TD candidate Maurice Quinlivan said: “The fact ‘they’ can’t get basic things right, like the alphabetical order of the candidates is an absolute scandal, and it is simply not good enough - this is a ridiculous situation to be in.”
Speaking to The Irish Times, Fianna Fáil TD Willie O’Dea said he did not believe the error would influence the outcome as “most voters look for the photographs” of those standing. “I think it should be ok,” he said.
“I did notice that I had to look way down the paper to see my own name and it was only when it was pointed to me that I realised what had happened.
“But if the outcome is very close [for some candidates] then the outcome could be challenged in court,” he said.
A spokesperson for the Limerick city returning officer said that they were “aware of the issue” and that it would be addressed at the count centre on Saturday morning.
Where are the Second Preferences Going?
There is a slight bias toward the two Government parties over Sinn Féin. Again Fianna Fáil will be disappointed as it looked from other polls this week that it might be more popular than the other two parties.
How will that translate into seats? It’s hard to say. If there is a disciplined transfer between the two Coalition parties they could get a seat bonus. But Sinn Féin’s clever endorsement of the Social Democrats and People Before Profit could allow it to close that obvious gap a lot, especially in the capital.
Second preferences
Fianna Fáil 20
Fine Gael 20
Sinn Féin 17
Social Democrats 5
Labour 5
PBP-Solidarity 4
Greens 3
Aontú 3
Ind Ireland 3
Independent 14
Other parties 2
Here are two tweets from Cormac McQuinn where he looks at the transfer patterns between parties.
What does it mean for the smaller parties and Independents?
There is a clear winner among the smaller parties and that is the Social Democrats with a 5.8 per cent showing. Depending on how it attracts transfers (and it is transfer friendly) the party could see its seat numbers creep into double figures. Likewise, Labour will be content enough with its showing of 5 per cent. It’s an increase on its 2020 election result of 4.4 per cent, if borne out, and could deliver extra seats for the party.
Another smaller party which will be thrilled is Aontú which has 3.6 per cent, according to the poll. People Before Profit has also marginally increased its support levels from 2.6 per cent to 3.1 per cent.
And the Greens? It is at 4 per cent, down 3 per cent from 2020. That means it could lose half its seats or more. But it’s not as calamitous for the party as 2011, when its support levels dipped below 2 per cent and it lost all its seats as well as the right to receive State financing.
The Independent Alliance has 2.2 which suggests it did not attract the kind of support it set out to do. The figure for Independents is 12.7 which is close to the 2020 figures. It suggests there might not be a big increase in their number.
So what does it mean?
Well the people have spoken but I think it’s going to take a while for us to figure out what they have said.
The three larger parties are still more or less prised together. Just a word of caution, in the exit poll in 2020, the actual outturn did differ a little, so one or more of the three big parties may have its support levels overstated or understated.
If the results are borne out, Fianna Fáil will be the most disappointed. It seemed to have been the only party that had stayed above the fray but it clearly did not have momentum. Micheál Martin was said to have had a good campaign but it has not translated into a greater level of support.
In context, it’s a good result for Sinn Féin. Not compared to a year ago. But definitely compared to five months ago when it tanked in the local and European elections. It has managed to put those - and the series of scandals involving senior figures in the party - behind it and recovered to compete with the other two.
Fine Gael will be disappointed compared to a month ago. But happy compared to three days ago when Simon Harris, after swatting away all foes for months, seemed to have impaled himself on his sword.
Is there a path to government on these figures. Not for Sinn Féin as a lead party of a left alliance. Not for Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil as a coalition setting off to do the second difficult album. There will be a lot of talking and a lot of creativity needed, if these results are borne out.
Jennifer Bray gives her take on The Late Late Show
A very tense and close election with three lead parties within 1.6 per cent of each other
The three lead parties are at a near deadlock according to the findings of the exit poll conducted by Ipsos/B&A on behalf of The Irish Times, RTE, TG4 and Trinity College.
For the second election in a row, Sinn Féin looks like it will be the most popular party with 21.1 per cent, a whisker above Fine Gael, which is at 21.0 per cent according to the findings. Fianna Fáil is a further 1.5 per cent back at 19.5 per cent.
The number of voter who were sampled today across the 43 constituencies was 5,018. The margin of error is 1.4 per cent.
Of the other parties, the Social Democrats have come out best, marginally ahead of the Labour Party.
Their support levels are, according to the poll.
Social Democrats: 5.8 per cent
Labour 5 per cent
Green Party 4 per cent
Aontu 3.6 per cent
People Before Profit 3.1 per cent
Independent Ireland 2.2 per cent
Independents 12.7 per cent
Others 1.9 per cent
Exit Poll will give strong indication of how the electorate has voted
We are nearing the time of when the exit poll results are published. We are going live with them at 10pm sharp. The poll was commissioned by The Irish Times, RTE, TG4 and Trinity College and 5,000 people have been surveyed across all 43 constituencies during the course of the day.
Our last opinion poll published on Monday put the three parties within a hair’s breadth of one another with Fianna Fáil at 21 per cent, Sinn Féin at 20, and Fine Gael at 19, all within the margin of error.
Has anything occurred in the past week to move the needle to or from any of the parties?
Was the leaders’ debate on RTÉ deliberative?
Did Simon Harris put what he described as the “bumps along the way” behind him?
If they are still locked together, it is going to be intriguing. It will mean that no two combinations can come close to a majority. The pathway to power for Sinn Féin will be tricky in that instance. The other interesting thing (but this will only become apparent when the count starts tomorrow) will be transfers. Will Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil transfer to each other in the numbers that their strategists are predicting.
This poll has such a large sample that the margin of error is small. We have not finalised the number yet but it will be around 1.6 per cent. In 2020, a similar exercised gave a very close approximation of the final out-turn for each of the larger parties.
How accurate are exit polls? Well the exit poll at the last general election got Fianna Fáil’s 22.2 per cent first preference vote exactly right.
Of the other two biggest parties, it slightly overestimated Fine Gael’s vote, giving the party 22.4 per cent (after the votes were counted it had 20.9 per cent) and it slightly underestimated Sinn Féin, giving the party 22.3 per cent, 2.2 per cent less than its 24.5 per cent.
This year’s exit poll will be published here at 10pm.
In Cork South West the turnout figures at 8pm stood at 55.4 per cent, while it was at 50.3 per cent in Cork East and 57.4 per cent in Cork North West.
In Monaghan town at 8.30pm the turnout was 52.8 per cent; in Clones it rose to 53 per cent; and in Castleblayney it stood at 38 per cent at 7pm.
We will be publishing an exit poll at 10pm on the button which will give the first real indication as to how the country has voted today.
The poll is a joint project of The Irish Times, RTE, TG4 and the Department of Political Science at Trinity College Dublin.
Turnout figures as of 8pm are coming in from Dublin, Galway and Cavan, Sarah Slater reports.
In Dublin, voter turnout had reached 51 per cent at 8pm across seven constituencies: Dublin Fingal West, Dublin Fingal East, Dublin West, Dublin Mid West, Dublin South West, Dublin Rathdown and Dún Laoghaire, according to the returning officer there.
In Galway city, voter turnout was ranging from 42 per cent to 54 per cent just after 8pm.
In Cavan county, turnout in Ballyjamesduff reached 54 per cent, while in Cootehill it rose from 27 per cent at 4pm to 40 per cent at 6.30pm. Cavan town stood at 41.3 per cent, Bailieborough was at 54 per cent and Virginia was at 51.12 per cent at 6.30pm.
Anyone trapped in a count centre this weekend (or indeed next week) will enjoy writer Richy Craven’s novel idea for a Rom Com.
Remember if you’re voting tonight to park safely. Even on election day, the clampers are still on duty.
In Mayo turnout at 7pm ranged from 60 per cent in rural Murrisk to 36.7 per cent in Castlebar primary school, Sarah Slater reports.
We are expecting more turnout figures shortly after 8pm. The Irish Times will publish the exit poll at 10pm.
Some ballot papers in the Limerick City constituency accidentally featured candidates’ names in reverse alphabetical order, according to reports.
The error could possibly render the result in the constituency void as electoral law states that candidates’ names should be listed in alphabetical order, according to the Limerick Post. On some ballot papers today, Maurice Quinlivan of Sinn Féin featured first rather than last.
In the past, some candidates have changed their names or used their Irish names to push themselves to the top of the ballot paper.
Éamon Ó Cuív previously dropped the Ó in his surname for electoral purposes. Research published by UCD following the 2011 general election found being first on the ballot paper is worth 544 first preference votes in an average constituency, or 1.27 per cent of the vote.
Turnout in Dublin County’s local authority areas (Fingal, South Dublin and Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown) was at an average of 34 per cent by 5pm, Sarah Slater reports.
Shortly after 5pm, turnout across Cork City, was between 33 per cent to a high of 48 per cent.
In Cork County, it was between 32.9 per cent and 38 per cent.
Limerick City and Limerick County had a turnout just over 30 per cent.
In Dundalk, turnout after 5pm was between 29 to 39 per cent rurally, whilst in urban Dundalk it was between 23 to 38 per cent.
Turnout in Cavan after 6pm was above 30 per cent in some polling stations.
Many polling stations say their next data will be ready at 8pm.
Across Dublin city constituencies, the average turnout was 30.8 per cent at 4.30pm, Jade Wilson reports.
The average turnout in Kildare North at 3.30pm was 28 per cent. In Kildare South, it was 26.5 per cent.
Turnout across urban Mayo by 4pm was as high as 34 per cent in some polling stations, with a low of 26 per cent at others.
In rural Mayo, turnout was highest at 39 per cent in one polling station, though most were between 26 per cent to 30 per cent.
Returning officers did not have comparison information for the last general election to report at this point in the day. It’s understood they may have this data to share after the 8pm percentage count.
Collective Action for Palestine will be at the count centre at the RDS on Saturday and other groups will be at count centres around Ireland this weekend, Ronan McGreevy reports.
They claim to represent large parts of Irish society and will be telling elected politicians that they must impose sanctions on Israel.
The Tonight Show presenters Claire Brock and Ciara Doherty have both announced their departure from the station.
The Virgin Media show, which was a fixture for a lot of political junkies, was cut down to from four to two days a week just before the election.
The station also pleaded poverty in its decision to not host a leaders’ debate. Station controller Áine Ní Chaoindealbháin blamed the failure of the Government to help
Ms Doherty, who has been with the broadcaster for 14 years, said she has decided “to move on from late nights and early mornings to begin a new adventure”.
Claire Brock said she had been “fortunate to have enjoyed incredible opportunities with the very best team of colleagues”.
Various different names have been put forward on X as to what Holly Cairns might call her baby girl given the auspicious day she was born.
Electra was one, Victoria another, Candace and maybe even Poll-y.
Holly Cairns, who was first elected to Cork County Council in 2019 by a single vote, will be hoping that things aren’t quite as tight this time around as she won’t be able to vote for herself after giving birth to a little girl this morning at Cork University Maternity Hospital, writes Barry Roche.
“Holly went into the hospital for a check up on Thursday evening and stayed in and her baby girl was born early this morning – she is registered to vote in her home polling station outside Skibbereen so she won’t be able to vote today,” said a Social Democrats source.
“It would be a two-hour journey and just not feasible with a newly born baby and unfortunately there is no facility for voting in hospitals like there is in nursing homes, so she won’t be able to cast her vote this time around.”
Holly was on the campaign trail right until to the time she went into CUMH, filming a campaign video for Social Democrats Cork South Central candidate Padraig Rice from the grounds of the maternity hospital in Wilton in the heart of the five seat constituency.
The timing is coincidental but the latest Eurobarometer poll may auger well for the re-election of the Government.
The European Commission undertakes surveys across the 27 member states on a regular basis to ascertain the mood of the Continent in general.
The survey shows that Irish people are generally more contented with their lot than their European equivalents.
Some 82 per cent rate their financial situation as being good in comparison with 73 per cent in Europe in general.
Similarly, 79 per cent of Irish people are happy with their job situation compared to 68 per cent across Europe.
Irish people are generally satisfied with the state of the economy with 71 per cent saying the economic situation is good and 28 per cent bad.
The survey also reveals strong support for the EU’s actions against Russia with 90 per cent of Irish people agreeing on sanctions against the country because of its invasion of Ukraine.
A really interesting read from Olivia O’Leary a woman who knows a thing or two about Irish elections.
There’s a great deal to be said for keeping it simple. The British journalist and excellent communicator, Andrew Marr, once advised journalists to put no more than four figures in an opinion piece. More than that and you lost the reader. And if this election campaign was dull, it was partly because it was weighed down with too many complex numbers.
The smaller parties are targeting specific constituencies for gains, and also to shore up support where their existing seats are under pressure, writes Harry McGee.
LABOUR
MAIN TARGETS
- Kildare South: Mark Wall has been knocking on the door to take a seat once held by his father. With Sinn Féin down, he is hoping he can stay in advance of independent Cathal Berry and of Fianna Fáil.
- Dublin Fingal West: A new constituency and the party has placed a lot of hope in Robert O’Donoghue who had a massive haul of votes in the local elections.
- Dublin South Central: Darragh Moriarty has put in a big campaign but will need to stay in advance of the smaller left-leaning parties and candidates.
- Dublin southwest: The party’s strongest chance of a gain. Ciarán Ahern has been impressive but will need to stay in advance of strong Independent candidates and of other left parties.
POSSIBLE GAINS
- Cork South Central: Laura Harmon could squeeze a seat if the party has a good day in Cork, although she will need to stay in advance of Mick Finn.
- Cork North Central: A two candidate strategy because of the constituency changes. The party’s stock has been rising but a big ask.
- Limerick City: Conor Sheehan is one of about five in competition for the last seat.
- Dublin West: John Walsh is a good candidate, who won over 2,000 votes in the local elections, but has to be in advance of Ruth Coppinger and Independent Tania Doyle to have any chance.
- Dublin Central: Marie Sherlock will be competitive but it’s a complicated constituency with a very big cast of characters.
- Dublin Rathdown: There is an extra seat in the constituency although Lettie McCarthy would be considered a long shot.
POTENTIAL LOSSES
- Dublin Bay North: Shane Folan is an enthusiastic and highly-regarded candidate but he came into the race relatively unknown and trying to succeed a high profile politician such as Aodhán Ó Riordáin. So a daunting prospect.
More from Harry McGee on how the smaller parties might do.
SOCIAL DEMOCRATS
The party is polling very strongly and looks like it will make gains. It has three strong targets, and another seven constituencies where it might gain on a very good day. Could be the dark horse among the smaller parties.
MAIN TARGETS
- Dublin South Central: Jen Cummins is a strong candidate and could emerge from a very strong field of left and centre-left candidates.
- Dublin-Rathdown: Sinéad Gibney performed well in the European elections. There is an extra seat here and she could be the dark horse candidate.
- Cork East: A big reconfiguration of the boundaries has meant Labour is no longer competitive. Liam Quaide has a chance, although it should not be overstated.
POSSIBLE TARGETS
- Meath West: Ronan Moore, a councillor and teacher, has made a big impact since entering politics but this three-seat constituency is a tough nut to crack.
- Carlow-Kilkenny. New candidate Patricia Stephenson has run a strong campaign and party officials have described her as Holly Cairns Mark 2.
- Limerick City: Elisa O’Donovan put in a strong performance in the Mayoral campaign and is in the conversation for the last seat.
POTENTIAL LOSSES
Dublin North West: Róisín Shortall’s retirement leaves a big gap and Rory Hearne has his work cut out to retain it. But he is high profile and with his party showing 12 per cent support levels in Dublin in The Irish Times poll, he will be in the mix.
Dublin Central: Another high profile figure, Gary Gannon, faces stiff competition in an unpredictable constituency where transfers will be everything. He looks like he might just survive.
SOLIDARITY-PEOPLE BEFORE PROFIT
MAIN TARGET
- Dublin West: Ruth Coppinger is favourite to take the extra seat there.
POTENTIAL LOSSES
- Cork North Central: Mick Barry will face competition from a strong Sinn Féin ticket and an Independent, Ken O’Flynn.
- Dublin South Central: Bríd Smith’s retirement will have an impact on the vote. Hazel de Nortúin has run a strong campaign but if Sinn Féin is strong, it might affect her chances.
AONTÚ:
MAIN TARGETS:
- Cavan-Monaghan: Sarah Reilly went close in 2020 and did very well in the local elections. She will put Fianna Fáil under pressure and may gain a second seat for the party.
- Wexford: Jim Codd would have preferred if the constituency remained a five-seater. He might benefit from a drop in Sinn Féin support but there are two strong Independents in the field.
- Dublin West: The party is putting a lot of store in its candidate, Edinburgh-born Ellen Troy, who won a seat on the council in June.
Sinn Féin’s housing spokesman Eoin Ó Broin has said that ‘the latest rise in homeless numbers confirms why a change of Government is needed.
“Once again, the number of adults, children, single people, and families without a home has increased. And this just weeks after the Government announced its record giveaway budget. The latest rise in homeless numbers confirms why we need a change of Government.
“As people go to the polls throughout today, they should ask themselves do they want another five years of rising homelessness. Because that is what they will get it Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael go back into Government,” he continued.
We will report any other responses as they come in.
The number of people in homeless accommodation in the State has reached another record high and is now at almost 15,000 people.
There were 14,966 people homeless in October, consisting of 10,321 adults and 4,645 children under the age of 18, from 2,161 families.
It amounts to an increase of 1.4 per cent on the 14,760 people accessing emergency accommodation in September.
The homelessness figures have increased year on year by 13.5 per cent. There were 13,179 people in homelessness in October last year.
Opposition parties, especially Sinn Féin, had called for the figures to be published in advance of the general election.
However, the Minister for Housing, Local Government and Heritage Darragh O’Brien said the publication of the figures were the sole responsibility of his department.
The homelessness figures for the previous month are normally published by the Department of Housing on the last Friday of the following month.
Harry McGee has done a breakdown of how the election might shake up for some parties.
GREEN PARTY
It’s a battle for survival for the Green Party. It has no strong targets and all its potential gains are long shots. Only two of its TDs, Catherine Martin and Roderic O’Gorman look safe. It is in real trouble in five constituencies and will be in battles in another five.
POSSIBLE GAINS
- Clare: Deputy leader Róisín Garvey is very much a rural Green and comes from a family with strong political pedigree. Came close the last time but would need all the dice to fall in her favour to have any chance.
- Galway West: With the Green tide on the ebb, Pauline O’Reilly would need to outpoll the SocDems and Labour and then take a large slice of transfers from them.
- Kildare North: Vincent P Martin, brother of Catherine Martin, is a quirky candidate who did well in 2020. Representing the smaller party in Government will not do him any favours, even if there is an extra seat.
- Dublin Bay North: David Healy came close in 2020 but it would be a surprise were he to win a seat in this candidate-heavy constituency.
- Offaly: Pippa Hackett is another Green Party minister who is highly regarded but the vote base for the Greens in Offaly is just not there.
SERIOUS RISK OF LOSS
- Wicklow: The widely liked Stephen Matthews has been a very effective chair of the Housing Committee but the odds are really against him in a constituency that has been reduced to four seats, where Simon Harris is one of the candidates.
- Waterford: Fine Gael and Sinn Féin on an upsurge, which spells a formidable challenge for Marc Ó Cathasaigh, who has been a very effective TD.
- Limerick City: Chair of the Environment Committee, Brian Leddin had a poor mayoral election and despite great campaign videos will find it hard to hang on.
- Dublin Fingal West: The constituency configuration has not suited Joe O’Brien, who looks really at risk.
- Dublin southwest: Poor local elections for the Greens here will make it difficult for Noel Francis Duffy to hold on.
POTENTIAL LOSSES
- Carlow-Kilkenny: Malcolm Noonan, will be in a scrap but the departure of Kathleen Funchion of Sinn Féin and the retirement of Fine Gael’s John Paul Phelan should help him. He has built up a strong base in Kilkenny and looks like he could hold on.
- Dublin South Central: A year ago Patrick Costello looked in real danger but the Green did well in the local elections giving him more of a chance of retaining his seat. If Sinn Féin is creeping up in the polls, it could be close to a second seat here for Máire Devine, or Daithí Doolan. Costello will also face a real threat from two other centre-left candidates: Jen Cummins from the SocDems and Darragh Moriarty from Labour. Hard to call.
- Dublin Central: This is a real Donnybrook and so much will rely on transfers. Neasa Hourigan is resilient and is probably edgier than her Green Party colleagues and could pick transfers they might not. Still odds are against her.
- Dublin Bay South: Hazel Chu is in a real battle for the final seat. There are four outgoing TDs and it is a certainty that one of them will lose their seat because Fine Gael will take at least one. Labour leader Ivana Bacik is competing for the same votes so she will be in a real battle for the final seat.
- Dún Laoghaire: The conundrum of Ossian Smyth is explained by his witty video comparing himself to Spock in Star Trek. He’s not the chattiest politician but has built up a solid base in Dún Laoghaire. In a battle with Fine Gael’s Barry Ward for the last seat.
In the Sandymount area of Dublin Bay South constituency the turn out was at 20 per cent by 12.30pm. Officials say is “well above” the turnout rate at the same time for the local and European elections.
More news on turnouts around the country from Jade Wilson.
Turnout across polling stations in Galway West is currently 8 per cent to 14 per cent at, while Galway East count centres have turnouts of 11 per cent to 16 per cent.
Turnout in rural Mayo polling stations is currently 9 to 18 per cent, and between 9 and 12.3 per cent in urban Mayo.
In Dundalk, some of the rural polling stations are now seeing over 20 per cent turnout.
Kilcurry polling station has a turnout of 28 per cent, and Sheelagh has 22 per cent so far.
In urban Dundalk, turnout is currently between 12.5-15 per cent.
We have some very good news from the leader of one party which we really must share while stressing it should not be taken as an indication of any bias on our part.
The President, Michael D Higgins cast his vote in the Phoenix Park this morning.
Some more turnout news from Jade Wilson, this time from Cavan.
At Bailieborough count centre, the turnout at 10am was 6 per cent.
In Ballyjamesduff, it was 8 per cent.
By 11am, turnout at St Clare’s count centre in Cavan was 9.17 per cent.
And the turnout for Virginia in Co Cavan at 12pm is 14.14 per cent.
Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald has cast her vote in at the Deaf Village in Cabra.
“We’ve lost count of the number of conversations that we’ve had with people with disabilities, children waiting and waiting for services, and that is really hard and really unacceptable, but we need to mark today with a note of optimism and hope and confidence and ambition, because today is election day,” she said.
“And the great beauty of this, and it’s a moment of almost, of actual unique equality for every citizen, because your vote holds exactly the same weight, whether you’re down on your luck and you’re struggling, or if you’re a multi millionaire, your vote carries equal weight.
“So this is the moment where people can really shape the next Government, and we need a new Government, but really have your say on an equal basis. So I always think that that’s a really positive thing.”
Have you ever wondering what overseas journalists make of our somewhat complicated voting system?
And how are international media organisations covering the elections here? Sarah Burns has been finding out.
Jade Wilson has a fresh update on turnout in Dublin and Kildare.
As of 9.30am this morning, voting constituencies across Dublin city had an average turnout of 3.68 per cent, with the exact turnouts for each constituency in the area below.
Dublin North West: 3.8 per cent
Dublin Bay North: 2.4 per cent
Dublin Central: 4.5 per cent
Dublin Bay South: 5.15 per cent
Dublin South Central: 2.55 per cent
Across Kildare North and South at the same time, there was an average turnout between 5 per cent and 6 per cent.
The next check with returning officers will be at around 12.30pm, we’re told.
The Tánaiste and Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin has said today is not the day to talk about the exact make-up of any future Government.
Barry Roche reports that when he was asked if he would be happy to be a rotating Taoiseach after the election he said “we’re not getting into that today. The people are voting today. Let’s have respect for the people.”
He said he was “fighting to be Taoiseach, I’m campaigning to be Taoiseach after the next election, but nothing is certain until every vote is counted. And then there is the aftermath of election in terms of what happens within Dáil Éireann itself.
So there is a lot of hard work ahead, but certainly I did have a good feeling in the last two to three days in terms of the response that I was getting after the debates.
He said the decision is “now in the hands of the people. We can’t be predicting anything now, at this stage, other than that, we fought a positive campaign. We’ve got a good response.”
There is some talk of turnout coming in. It is very early in the day and across the country between 3 and 5 per cent of the electorate have already cast their ballots. According to some reports, Dublin has been slightly busier that it was at this point in the 2020 election. Still very early days mind you.
The Tánaiste and Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin has said he is “cautiously hopeful” of the outcome of what he called a “close fought” election battle.
He said his Fianna Fáil party had a “stronger team” than they had in the 2020 election, when they came back with 38 seats.
Asked will he sleep on Friday night and before count day, he said “oh I will yeah”. Asked if he has any rituals on count day, Mr Martin said “I take it easy”.
“I’ll have a very good breakfast tomorrow morning, and I tell everyone not to come near me until about midday,” he said in Cork. I don’t want to hear a tally from the 44th box, no point. I can go over all that later.
“Actually, I’m very relaxed on count day and the only challenge is to make sure that I can keep the noise out. I will probably go into town and do a few things, go to Douglas market maybe. Then in around midday, 1pm maybe, depending when the tally will be finished, head to the count centre, and it’s very familiar ground for me, Nemo Rangers, and I’ll enjoy that.
“Maybe that’ll be a good omen,” he said, referring to the fact that his son Micheal Aodh plays football for Nemo Rangers GAA club.
Don’t write up Louth, up the Dubs, up Mayo
An Coimisiún Toghcháin’s head of electoral operations Tim Carey has warned voters not to write anything but numbers on their ballot papers.
Speaking on RTÉ's Morning Ireland he reminded voters to “start with the number one and then work your way down the ballot with as much or as few candidates as you want. Don’t write up Louth, up the Dubs, up Mayo, don’t comment on one of the politicians or anything like that because if you do your vote may not be counted.”
He also warned people against taking selfies in the booth. “Take a selfie outside the polling station by the sign, but not inside the polling station.”
Care said people should also make sure their ballot is properly stamped at the polling stations.
“If that is not done, and in a very small percentage of cases it is not because they are busy or they just forget, your vote won’t count – it is actually an invalid vote,” he said. “So, make sure it is stamped.”
And in case you miss it, this is how we will be covering the count. It’s an all hands on deck kind of affair.
Simon Harris has aid he was “feeling really good today” as he arrived with his family at Delgany National School in Co Wicklow to vote just before 7.30am.
“I’m feeling really hopeful, hopeful in terms of the election, but hopeful for the future of our country,” he said.
“I wanted to vote early because I now want to head across our country today, continuing to encourage everyone to get out and have their say in this election.”
Asked whether he was glad the campaign was over, the Taoiseach said he had enjoyed the campaign and making a pitch for his vision for the country’s future.
He said he would be working until polls close at 10pm and is expected to travel to counties Carlow, Laois, Monaghan and Tipperary, as well as Dublin.
Our voting system is many things but uncomplicated is not one of them. How does it work? Sarah Burns has some answers.
Still undecided? That’s okay, we have you covered on that score too. We’re not going to tell you who to vote for, like, but the WhichCandidate voting aid tool might help you to find out who you agree with on a range of policies
“The people of Ireland will vote for freedom.”
That is Elon Musk’s view anyways, for what it’s worth. He took to the platform formerly known as Twitter overnight to share it. He also shared a video of a lot of people walking around flying the tricolour to a soundtrack of stirring music and chants of “Get them out”.
Now you know.
“Identifying target seats in Irish general election is an art more than a science. Unless there is a huge surge for one or two parties – as happened in 1992, 2011 and again in 2020 – gains and losses happen at the margins.” This piece from Harry McGee is well worth a few minutes of your day.
How do you vote? What do you need? Where should you go? We have all – or at least some – of your election questions answered.
Today will be a long enough day with not a huge amount happening – at least in terms of canvassing – but we will be with you to cover it all.
While we might be in the calm before the political storm right now, things will change at 10pm when the first results of an Irish Times/RTÉ/TG4/TCD exit poll conducted by Ipsos B&A will be released. That might give us an early and very tentative sign as to what will happen next and who will form the next Government.
It won’t be definitive mind you. As the counts go on – and on and on and on – throughout tomorrow transfers and second, third and fourth preferences will come into play in a big way and until the last seat is filled we probably won’t be sure who are next Taoiseach will be and what party they will be from.
It is a long process for sure but isn’t that what makes it all exciting.
Polling stations have opened across the 43 constituencies in the State and voting will continue until 10pm.
Almost 3.7 million people will be eligible to vote. That is up 423,000 voters since the 2020 election with over 100,000 new registrations in the two weeks before the closing deadline.
If the turnout is decent we could see more people casting their vote than at any point in the history of the State.
Once the clock strikes 10pm, the ballot boxes will be sealed and securely transported to the 32 count centres where they will say until 9am tomorrow when the magic – and the madness – of an Irish election count will get under way in earnest.
