British government analysis says all UK regions to suffer in Brexit

All UK industries will be hurt and growth will be cut, confidential report finds

British prime minister Theresa May has come under fire over her Brexit strategy in recent days. Photograph: PA Wire

British prime minister Theresa May has come under fire over her Brexit strategy in recent days. Photograph: PA Wire

 

A confidential analysis by the British government on the impact of Brexit suggests all UK industries will be hurt by leaving the European Union, it was reported on Monday.

All UK regions would be adversely affected by the UK’s exit from EU, with maximum impact to be faced by Northern Ireland, the northeast and the west midlands.

The analysis, which looks at three probable Brexit scenarios, is titled “EU Exit Analysis – Cross Whitehall Briefing” and dated January 2018, website BuzzFeed reported.

The department for exiting the EU headed by David Davis said the UK government was not prepared to comment on its analysis.

A government spokesperson said: “We have been clear that we are not prepared to provide a running commentary on any aspect of this ongoing internal work.”

Status quo

BuzzFeed said, citing the analysis, that in a comprehensive free-trade agreement with the EU, UK growth over the next 15 years would be 5 per cent lower than current forecasts.

Under a “no deal” situation in which Britain returned to World Trade Organisation rules, growth would be cut by 8 per cent over the same period.

If the UK had continued access to the single market through membership in the European Economic Area, long-term growth would fall 2 per cent, the analysis showed.

The analysis found trade deals with other non-EU countries and blocs would add up to 0.4 per cent to UK GDP in the long run.

British prime minister Theresa May has come under fire over her Brexit strategy in recent days, with eurosceptic rivals criticising her for largely accepting the EU push for a status quo transition. – Reuters