THE TANAISTE, due in Cyprus tomorrow on a "fact finding" visit, will find an island more divided than at any time since de facto partition was imposed by the Turkish army in 1974.
The "Green Line" remains a firm fixture, with the internationally recognised Greek Cypriot Republic holding 64 per cent of the territory to the south of the line and the Turkish Cypriots the 36 per cent to the north. The line is rarely crossed by members of either community.
Separation has bred suspicion, exacerbated in recent months by an arms race which prompted the UN Secretary General, Dr Boutros Boutros Ghali, to report that the island was one of world's the most intensely militarised areas, with both sides upgrading their weapons, the Turks increasing their troops from 30 35,000 and the Greek Cypriots implementing a pact with Athens.
Division has created disparity. For the Greek Cypriots 1995 was a record breaking financial year, with growth rate estimated at 5 per cent, tourism booming and investment rising by 300 per cent over the previous year. The Turkish Cypriot economy, magnifying mainland Turkey's economic ills, was on the verge of collapse, requiring an infusion of $75 million at year's end to pay the salaries of both local civil servants and Turkish troops.
The democratic south remained politically stable, while the coalition government in the north collapsed due to the hard line stance adopted by the Turkish Cypriot leader, Mr Rauf Denktash, towards a settlement. Disillusionment at the UN's failure to secure movement in the stalled negotiations has also hardened Greek Cypriot attitudes.
Mr Spring will be arriving in Cyprus at a time of uncertainty due to the failure of Turkey's politicians to form a government and the illness of Mr Andreas Papandreou, which has created a political vacuum in Greece.
Because of this uncertainty the president of the House of Representatives, Mr Alexis Ghalanos, told The Irish Times it was an inauspicious time for friends to launch initiatives to settle the Cyprus problem.
In the last month the US, China, Russia, Britain and Italy have all dispatched envoys to Cyprus in an effort to restart inter communal talks. The US Assistant Secretary of State, Mr Richard Holbrooke, godfather of the Bosnian peace accord, is expected at the end of the month.
"Everybody is moving, but Turkey is not moving," said Mr Ghalanos. "And until we see that Turkey is ready to make compromises, there is no point in trying to start up the talks. We are ready to reunite but we are not ready to accept a solution based on two states camouflaged by a weak confederation, which is what Turkey wants."
Such a solution would produce a "separate Turkish sovereignty" on the island and "legitimisation of Ankara's presence", Mr Ghalanos said.
"We will never agree to separate sovereignty We are not prepared to accept a bad solution which is worse than the status quo
There can be no arm twisting here. We are a European country advancing towards membership in Europe.
